Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 7 to 10 countries for US military actions in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes in at least seven nations so far—Iran via Operation Epic Fury since late February, Somalia with nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS, Syria under Operation Inherent Resolve, Yemen against Houthi targets, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iraq amid counterterrorism operations. Recent catalysts include CENTCOM's April 2 footage of Iran strikes and record Somalia pacing, solidifying the baseline while uncertainty over expansions keeps probabilities clustered. De-escalation in Iran diplomacy or ceasefires could cap at 7-8; new escalations like cartel strikes in Mexico, proxy actions in Lebanon, or tensions with North Korea might push toward 10+, creating separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПротив скольких разных стран США проведут военные действия в 2026 году?
Против скольких разных стран США проведут военные действия в 2026 году?
7 29.8%
8 24.7%
9 15.9%
10 11.8%
$724,273 Объем
$724,273 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
6
11%
7
30%
8
25%
9
16%
10
12%
11
4%
12
2%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
4%
7 29.8%
8 24.7%
9 15.9%
10 11.8%
$724,273 Объем
$724,273 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
6
$417,366 Объем
11%
7
$3,938 Объем
30%
8
$8,001 Объем
25%
9
$8,921 Объем
16%
10
$10,276 Объем
12%
11
$8,061 Объем
4%
12
$10,045 Объем
2%
13
$7,250 Объем
2%
14
$41,441 Объем
1%
15+
$49,132 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 7 to 10 countries for US military actions in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes in at least seven nations so far—Iran via Operation Epic Fury since late February, Somalia with nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS, Syria under Operation Inherent Resolve, Yemen against Houthi targets, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iraq amid counterterrorism operations. Recent catalysts include CENTCOM's April 2 footage of Iran strikes and record Somalia pacing, solidifying the baseline while uncertainty over expansions keeps probabilities clustered. De-escalation in Iran diplomacy or ceasefires could cap at 7-8; new escalations like cartel strikes in Mexico, proxy actions in Lebanon, or tensions with North Korea might push toward 10+, creating separation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Объем
$724,273Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 7 to 10 countries for US military actions in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes in at least seven nations so far—Iran via Operation Epic Fury since late February, Somalia with nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS, Syria under Operation Inherent Resolve, Yemen against Houthi targets, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iraq amid counterterrorism operations. Recent catalysts include CENTCOM's April 2 footage of Iran strikes and record Somalia pacing, solidifying the baseline while uncertainty over expansions keeps probabilities clustered. De-escalation in Iran diplomacy or ceasefires could cap at 7-8; new escalations like cartel strikes in Mexico, proxy actions in Lebanon, or tensions with North Korea might push toward 10+, creating separation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$724,273Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 7 to 10 countries for US military actions in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes in at least seven nations so far—Iran via Operation Epic Fury since late February, Somalia with nearly 50 AFRICOM strikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS, Syria under Operation Inherent Resolve, Yemen against Houthi targets, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iraq amid counterterrorism operations. Recent catalysts include CENTCOM's April 2 footage of Iran strikes and record Somalia pacing, solidifying the baseline while uncertainty over expansions keeps probabilities clustered. De-escalation in Iran diplomacy or ceasefires could cap at 7-8; new escalations like cartel strikes in Mexico, proxy actions in Lebanon, or tensions with North Korea might push toward 10+, creating separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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