Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЕще один иранский дипломат выдворен до 30 апреля?
Еще один иранский дипломат выдворен до 30 апреля?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Объем
$9,810Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$9,810Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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