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Política·Congresso

Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

Market icon
Política·Congresso

Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?

Sim

21% acaso
Polymarket

$105,525 Vol.

Sim

21% acaso
Polymarket

$105,525 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's February 2025 announcement that he will serve out his full term ending January 2027—without seeking reelection in 2026—anchors trader consensus at 79% against an early resignation, reflecting the absence of any official statements or party pressures indicating otherwise. Despite ongoing health concerns, including a February 2026 hospitalization for flu-like symptoms and prior freeze episodes, McConnell continues active Senate participation, such as voting against the SAVE Act in late February. At age 84, structural factors like incumbency and no immediate successor push maintain stability, though late-term health events or scandals could shift odds before resolution upon term end or confirmed resignation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$105,525
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's February 2025 announcement that he will serve out his full term ending January 2027—without seeking reelection in 2026—anchors trader consensus at 79% against an early resignation, reflecting the absence of any official statements or party pressures indicating otherwise. Despite ongoing health concerns, including a February 2026 hospitalization for flu-like symptoms and prior freeze episodes, McConnell continues active Senate participation, such as voting against the SAVE Act in late February. At age 84, structural factors like incumbency and no immediate successor push maintain stability, though late-term health events or scandals could shift odds before resolution upon term end or confirmed resignation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$105,525
Data de Término
3 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mitch McConnell vai deixar o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" has generated $105.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" is "Mitch McConnell vai deixar o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mitch McConnell deixará o Senado antes do fim do seu mandato?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.