Incumbent Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman, who has held Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District since 2015, drives trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican lean (R+5 partisan baseline) and his strong past performances, including wide margins in 2022 and 2024. Grothman faces a long-shot Republican primary challenger, Jonathan Peetz, on August 11, while Democrats field a fragmented primary slate lacking a high-profile contender. An independent bid by union firefighter Mike Thurow adds minor uncertainty but poses little threat given historical base rates for third-party success in safe House seats. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics ahead of the June 1 filing deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWI-06 House Election Winner
WI-06 House Election Winner
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
14%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
85%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman, who has held Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District since 2015, drives trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican lean (R+5 partisan baseline) and his strong past performances, including wide margins in 2022 and 2024. Grothman faces a long-shot Republican primary challenger, Jonathan Peetz, on August 11, while Democrats field a fragmented primary slate lacking a high-profile contender. An independent bid by union firefighter Mike Thurow adds minor uncertainty but poses little threat given historical base rates for third-party success in safe House seats. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics ahead of the June 1 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman, who has held Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District since 2015, drives trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican lean (R+5 partisan baseline) and his strong past performances, including wide margins in 2022 and 2024. Grothman faces a long-shot Republican primary challenger, Jonathan Peetz, on August 11, while Democrats field a fragmented primary slate lacking a high-profile contender. An independent bid by union firefighter Mike Thurow adds minor uncertainty but poses little threat given historical base rates for third-party success in safe House seats. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics ahead of the June 1 filing deadline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman, who has held Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District since 2015, drives trader consensus toward an 85.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican lean (R+5 partisan baseline) and his strong past performances, including wide margins in 2022 and 2024. Grothman faces a long-shot Republican primary challenger, Jonathan Peetz, on August 11, while Democrats field a fragmented primary slate lacking a high-profile contender. An independent bid by union firefighter Mike Thurow adds minor uncertainty but poses little threat given historical base rates for third-party success in safe House seats. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics ahead of the June 1 filing deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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