Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to Anthropic holding the best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance across key benchmarks like Artificial Analysis and SWE-bench (93.2% score) since its February release, excelling in agentic coding, planning, and complex tasks. Recent confirmation of Anthropic testing Claude Mythos—its most capable model yet with 10 trillion parameters for cybersecurity and development—further solidifies this lead, amid rapid feature rollouts like Claude Code and persistent memory. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 4.1% despite strong Elo ratings, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 series lags, with no confirmed rival launches poised to shift rankings before resolution on major leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhich company has the best AI model end of April?
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Anthropic 90%
Google 4.1%
OpenAI 3.3%
xAI <1%
$2,772,179 Vol.
$2,772,179 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

4%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 4.1%
OpenAI 3.3%
xAI <1%
$2,772,179 Vol.
$2,772,179 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

4%

OpenAI
3%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90% implied probability to Anthropic holding the best AI model by end of April 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance across key benchmarks like Artificial Analysis and SWE-bench (93.2% score) since its February release, excelling in agentic coding, planning, and complex tasks. Recent confirmation of Anthropic testing Claude Mythos—its most capable model yet with 10 trillion parameters for cybersecurity and development—further solidifies this lead, amid rapid feature rollouts like Claude Code and persistent memory. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 4.1% despite strong Elo ratings, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 series lags, with no confirmed rival launches poised to shift rankings before resolution on major leaderboards like LMSYS Chatbot Arena.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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