Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and other key leaderboards with superior Elo ratings in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, fueling its 88.5% implied probability as the leading outcome for end-of-April supremacy. Released in early February 2026, the model has fended off March challengers like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok-4.20-beta, which trail despite strong benchmark showings, reflecting trader consensus on its sustained edge amid sparse April release signals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (3.1%) and xAI (3.4%) linger as distant threats, hinging on unconfirmed previews or rapid iterations. A rumored Anthropic "Mythos" successor remains in testing, with no firm timeline before month-end, underscoring low upset risk in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhich company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 89%
xAI 3.3%
Google 3.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
$845,092 Vol.
$845,092 Vol.

Anthropic
89%

xAI
3%

3%

OpenAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Moonshot
1%

Alibaba
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 89%
xAI 3.3%
Google 3.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
$845,092 Vol.
$845,092 Vol.

Anthropic
89%

xAI
3%

3%

OpenAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Moonshot
1%

Alibaba
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and other key leaderboards with superior Elo ratings in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, fueling its 88.5% implied probability as the leading outcome for end-of-April supremacy. Released in early February 2026, the model has fended off March challengers like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok-4.20-beta, which trail despite strong benchmark showings, reflecting trader consensus on its sustained edge amid sparse April release signals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (3.1%) and xAI (3.4%) linger as distant threats, hinging on unconfirmed previews or rapid iterations. A rumored Anthropic "Mythos" successor remains in testing, with no firm timeline before month-end, underscoring low upset risk in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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