Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Anthropic 67.3%
Google 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.8%
$2,884,447 Vol.
$2,884,447 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
67%
24%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 67.3%
Google 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.8%
$2,884,447 Vol.
$2,884,447 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$567,857 Vol.
67%
$314,820 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$102,153 Vol.
6%
xAI
$843,690 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$208,579 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$170,425 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$110,905 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$290,119 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$123,665 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$152,233 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,884,447Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,884,447Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026—likely resolved via LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—driven by Claude Opus 4.6's February launch, which surged to the top spot with superior coding, planning, and natural prose benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid feature rollouts like computer-use tools and persistent memory. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released mid-February, trails at 23.5% despite leading reasoning tests like GPQA at 94.3%, reflecting its multimodal strengths but weaker developer ecosystem traction. OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations lag further at 5.5% due to stagnant recent demos, while dark horses like xAI remain speculative; upcoming model previews or benchmark resets before quarter-end could shift dynamics in this fast-evolving large language model race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions