Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?

$1,165,394 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,165,394 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

OpenAI

$337,577 Vol.

29%

Market icon

xAI

$537,589 Vol.

16%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$23,023 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Alibaba

$4,633 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Meta

$0 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Z.ai

$0 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Baidu

$1,906 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Mistral

$0 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Nvidia

$0 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Meituan

$2,695 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot across LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—including text, code, and document categories—with an Elo lead established in early March 2026, anchoring short-term trader consensus. Yet Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% for achieving #1 status by June 30, driven by high volumes ($337K and $537K respectively) betting on imminent frontier model releases like GPT-5.x iterations and Grok-4 amid accelerating compute scaling. Meta's Avocado delay dims its prospects, while DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 8% on open-weight benchmark gains. Watch Google I/O in May and unannounced launches, as leaderboard volatility hinges on crossing 1500+ Elo thresholds.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot across LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—including text, code, and document categories—with an Elo lead established in early March 2026, anchoring short-term trader consensus. Yet Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% for achieving #1 status by June 30, driven by high volumes ($337K and $537K respectively) betting on imminent frontier model releases like GPT-5.x iterations and Grok-4 amid accelerating compute scaling. Meta's Avocado delay dims its prospects, while DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 8% on open-weight benchmark gains. Watch Google I/O in May and unannounced launches, as leaderboard volatility hinges on crossing 1500+ Elo thresholds.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot across LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—including text, code, and document categories—with an Elo lead established in early March 2026, anchoring short-term trader consensus. Yet Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% for achieving #1 status by June 30, driven by high volumes ($337K and $537K respectively) betting on imminent frontier model releases like GPT-5.x iterations and Grok-4 amid accelerating compute scaling. Meta's Avocado delay dims its prospects, while DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 8% on open-weight benchmark gains. Watch Google I/O in May and unannounced launches, as leaderboard volatility hinges on crossing 1500+ Elo thresholds.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot across LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards—including text, code, and document categories—with an Elo lead established in early March 2026, anchoring short-term trader consensus. Yet Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% for achieving #1 status by June 30, driven by high volumes ($337K and $537K respectively) betting on imminent frontier model releases like GPT-5.x iterations and Grok-4 amid accelerating compute scaling. Meta's Avocado delay dims its prospects, while DeepSeek and Alibaba linger at 8% on open-weight benchmark gains. Watch Google I/O in May and unannounced launches, as leaderboard volatility hinges on crossing 1500+ Elo thresholds.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.