Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Tecnologia·IA

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?

$1,165,384 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,165,384 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

OpenAI

$337,567 Vol.

29%

Market icon

xAI

$537,589 Vol.

16%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$23,023 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Alibaba

$4,633 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Meta

$0 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Z.ai

$0 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Baidu

$1,906 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Mistral

$0 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Nvidia

$0 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Meituan

$2,695 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the #1 position on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards as of late March 2026, with an Elo above 2,000, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 following a unprecedented Q1 release frenzy of over 250 large language models—including xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2—that has compressed gaps between frontier AI capabilities. Polymarket traders nonetheless imply 29% odds for OpenAI topping charts by June 30, citing its track record of leapfrogging via GPT updates and agentic features like computer use, while xAI at 16% rides momentum from Grok's video dominance and real-time X integration. Meta's recent foundational model delay underscores risks; watch for unannounced Q2 launches from leading labs that could trigger multiple leaderboard shifts before resolution.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the #1 position on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards as of late March 2026, with an Elo above 2,000, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 following a unprecedented Q1 release frenzy of over 250 large language models—including xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2—that has compressed gaps between frontier AI capabilities. Polymarket traders nonetheless imply 29% odds for OpenAI topping charts by June 30, citing its track record of leapfrogging via GPT updates and agentic features like computer use, while xAI at 16% rides momentum from Grok's video dominance and real-time X integration. Meta's recent foundational model delay underscores risks; watch for unannounced Q2 launches from leading labs that could trigger multiple leaderboard shifts before resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the #1 position on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards as of late March 2026, with an Elo above 2,000, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 following a unprecedented Q1 release frenzy of over 250 large language models—including xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2—that has compressed gaps between frontier AI capabilities. Polymarket traders nonetheless imply 29% odds for OpenAI topping charts by June 30, citing its track record of leapfrogging via GPT updates and agentic features like computer use, while xAI at 16% rides momentum from Grok's video dominance and real-time X integration. Meta's recent foundational model delay underscores risks; watch for unannounced Q2 launches from leading labs that could trigger multiple leaderboard shifts before resolution.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the #1 position on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and similar leaderboards as of late March 2026, with an Elo above 2,000, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 following a unprecedented Q1 release frenzy of over 250 large language models—including xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2—that has compressed gaps between frontier AI capabilities. Polymarket traders nonetheless imply 29% odds for OpenAI topping charts by June 30, citing its track record of leapfrogging via GPT updates and agentic features like computer use, while xAI at 16% rides momentum from Grok's video dominance and real-time X integration. Meta's recent foundational model delay underscores risks; watch for unannounced Q2 launches from leading labs that could trigger multiple leaderboard shifts before resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 100%, followed by "OpenAI" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" is "Anthropic" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.