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Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

Market icon
Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

$1,267,371 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,267,371 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$42,270 Vol.

4%

↑ 5,25%

$135,456 Vol.

6%

↑ 5,0%

$9,703 Vol.

3%

↑ 4,75%

$65,440 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,5%

$9,817 Vol.

5%

↑ 4,25%

$21,737 Vol.

10%

↓ 3,25%

$52,696 Vol.

64%

↓ 3,0%

$214,649 Vol.

38%

↓ 2,75%

$250,226 Vol.

20%

↓ 2,5%

$171,423 Vol.

15%

↓ 2,25%

$21,904 Vol.

11%

↓ 2,0%

$14,496 Vol.

13%

↓ 1,75%

$5,943 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,5%

$24,836 Vol.

12%

↓ 1,25%

$893 Vol.

26%

↓ 1,0%

$0 Vol.

10%

↓ 0,75%

$388 Vol.

9%

↓ 0,5%

$89,217 Vol.

6%

↓ 0,25%

$117,158 Vol.

7%

↓ 0%

$10,116 Vol.

6%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses. The updated dot plot projects a median rate of 3.4% by end-2026—implying one 25 basis point cut—and low-3% levels by 2027, with a hawkish shift showing fewer participants expecting multiple cuts due to persistent inflation risks. Traders monitor the April 10 March CPI release and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts, as Treasury yields hover near 3.9% on the 5-year note and CME FedWatch implies low near-term cut odds, underscoring policy caution amid balanced growth.

The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses. The updated dot plot projects a median rate of 3.4% by end-2026—implying one 25 basis point cut—and low-3% levels by 2027, with a hawkish shift showing fewer participants expecting multiple cuts due to persistent inflation risks. Traders monitor the April 10 March CPI release and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts, as Treasury yields hover near 3.9% on the 5-year note and CME FedWatch implies low near-term cut odds, underscoring policy caution amid balanced growth.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses. The updated dot plot projects a median rate of 3.4% by end-2026—implying one 25 basis point cut—and low-3% levels by 2027, with a hawkish shift showing fewer participants expecting multiple cuts due to persistent inflation risks. Traders monitor the April 10 March CPI release and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts, as Treasury yields hover near 3.9% on the 5-year note and CME FedWatch implies low near-term cut odds, underscoring policy caution amid balanced growth.

The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 nonfarm payroll losses. The updated dot plot projects a median rate of 3.4% by end-2026—implying one 25 basis point cut—and low-3% levels by 2027, with a hawkish shift showing fewer participants expecting multiple cuts due to persistent inflation risks. Traders monitor the April 10 March CPI release and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts, as Treasury yields hover near 3.9% on the 5-year note and CME FedWatch implies low near-term cut odds, underscoring policy caution amid balanced growth.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, followed by "↓ 3,25%" at 64%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓ 3,25%" at 64%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.