Market icon
Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

Market icon
Economia·Jerome Powell

O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?

$826,936 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$826,936 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$17,690 Vol.

4%

↑ 5,25%

$15,597 Vol.

20%

↑ 5,0%

$9,297 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,75%

$3,746 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,5%

$9,722 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,25%

$21,567 Vol.

9%

↓ 3,25%

$52,526 Vol.

63%

↓ 3,0%

$214,634 Vol.

40%

↓ 2,75%

$250,220 Vol.

20%

↓ 2,5%

$171,252 Vol.

15%

↓ 2,25%

$21,884 Vol.

11%

↓ 2,0%

$206 Vol.

13%

↓ 1,75%

$5,943 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,5%

$580 Vol.

8%

↓ 1,25%

$844 Vol.

30%

↓ 1,0%

$0 Vol.

9%

↓ 0,75%

$0 Vol.

7%

↓ 0,5%

$8,179 Vol.

8%

↓ 0,25%

$4,151 Vol.

5%

↓ 0%

$9,895 Vol.

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the dot plot signaling a median path to 3.00%-3.25% by end-2027 amid cooling inflation and labor market softening. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE held at 3.1%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4% with 92,000 jobs lost, supporting trader consensus for gradual 25-basis-point cuts later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies over 94% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting data-dependent policy amid balanced risks. Key catalysts include April CPI/PCE releases and May nonfarm payrolls, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus official guidance.

The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the dot plot signaling a median path to 3.00%-3.25% by end-2027 amid cooling inflation and labor market softening. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE held at 3.1%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4% with 92,000 jobs lost, supporting trader consensus for gradual 25-basis-point cuts later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies over 94% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting data-dependent policy amid balanced risks. Key catalysts include April CPI/PCE releases and May nonfarm payrolls, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus official guidance.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the dot plot signaling a median path to 3.00%-3.25% by end-2027 amid cooling inflation and labor market softening. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE held at 3.1%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4% with 92,000 jobs lost, supporting trader consensus for gradual 25-basis-point cuts later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies over 94% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting data-dependent policy amid balanced risks. Key catalysts include April CPI/PCE releases and May nonfarm payrolls, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus official guidance.

The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the dot plot signaling a median path to 3.00%-3.25% by end-2027 amid cooling inflation and labor market softening. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE held at 3.1%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4% with 92,000 jobs lost, supporting trader consensus for gradual 25-basis-point cuts later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies over 94% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, reflecting data-dependent policy amid balanced risks. Key catalysts include April CPI/PCE releases and May nonfarm payrolls, which could shift market-implied rate paths versus official guidance.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, followed by "↓ 3,25%" at 63%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" has generated $826.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" is "↓ 3,5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓ 3,25%" at 63%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O que a taxa do Fed atingirá antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.