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Política·Primárias

VA-02 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas

Market icon
Política·Primárias

VA-02 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas

Elaine Luria 85%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.6%

Nila Devanath 2.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

Elaine Luria 85%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.6%

Nila Devanath 2.3%

Polymarket
NOVO

Elaine Luria

$1,102 Vol.

85%

Matt Strickler

$0 Vol.

4%

Burk Stringfellow

$0 Vol.

4%

Nila Devanath

$779 Vol.

2%

Nicolaus Sleister

$0 Vol.

2%

Patrick Mosolf

$1,490 Vol.

2%

James Osyf

$1,097 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her prior tenure representing the district from 2019-2023, strong fundraising exceeding $1.1 million, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee inclusion in its Red to Blue program in late February 2026, signaling party prioritization to flip the seat from Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans. No public primary polling exists, but Luria's endorsements, including from Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, and Navy veteran background bolster her edge over challengers like James Osyf, who suspended his campaign in December 2025 to consolidate support. James Osyf holds second at 8.6% on residual momentum from $410,000 raised, while Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, and others trail with limited visibility. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving odds stable ahead of potential late endorsements or debates.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,468
Data de Término
16 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her prior tenure representing the district from 2019-2023, strong fundraising exceeding $1.1 million, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee inclusion in its Red to Blue program in late February 2026, signaling party prioritization to flip the seat from Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans. No public primary polling exists, but Luria's endorsements, including from Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, and Navy veteran background bolster her edge over challengers like James Osyf, who suspended his campaign in December 2025 to consolidate support. James Osyf holds second at 8.6% on residual momentum from $410,000 raised, while Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, and others trail with limited visibility. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving odds stable ahead of potential late endorsements or debates.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,468
Data de Término
16 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-02 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elaine Luria" at 85%, followed by "James Osyf" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"VA-02 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "VA-02 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-02 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is "Elaine Luria" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Osyf" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-02 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.