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Tecnologia·Ogiva Nuclear

EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Ogiva Nuclear

EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?

Sim

34% chance
Polymarket

$22,490 Vol.

Sim

34% chance
Polymarket

$22,490 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability for "No" as no new combined licenses (COLs) for nuclear reactor construction and operation have been issued by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) through mid-April 2026, despite regulatory momentum. The NRC's March 2026 approval of a construction permit for TerraPower's Natrium advanced reactor—the first for a commercial non-light-water design—signals progress in permitting but stops short of the full COL required for greenfield sites. Finalization of the Part 53 risk-informed licensing framework that month aims to expedite advanced reactor and small modular reactor (SMR) approvals, yet historical multi-year timelines and ongoing reviews, like Fermi America's AP1000 COL application, leave insufficient runway for 2026 completion per trader sentiment. Key catalysts include pending docket decisions before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,490
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability for "No" as no new combined licenses (COLs) for nuclear reactor construction and operation have been issued by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) through mid-April 2026, despite regulatory momentum. The NRC's March 2026 approval of a construction permit for TerraPower's Natrium advanced reactor—the first for a commercial non-light-water design—signals progress in permitting but stops short of the full COL required for greenfield sites. Finalization of the Part 53 risk-informed licensing framework that month aims to expedite advanced reactor and small modular reactor (SMR) approvals, yet historical multi-year timelines and ongoing reviews, like Fermi America's AP1000 COL application, leave insufficient runway for 2026 completion per trader sentiment. Key catalysts include pending docket decisions before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,490
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" has generated $22.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" is "Os EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.