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Tecnologia·Ogiva Nuclear

EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Ogiva Nuclear

EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?

Sim

25% acaso
Polymarket

$21,861 Vol.

Sim

25% acaso
Polymarket

$21,861 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 71% implied probability for a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) combined license (COL)—authorizing both construction and operation of a new commercial nuclear reactor—in 2026, as no such full approvals have materialized despite accelerating regulatory momentum. The landmark March 4 issuance of a construction permit to TerraPower's 345-MW Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor marked the first for an advanced non-light-water design in over a decade, lifting Yes odds from prior lows but falling short of COL criteria. NRC's March 25 Part 53 rule introduces flexible, risk-informed pathways to expedite advanced reactor licensing, yet multi-year historical timelines and pending dockets like SMR LLC's phased permit leave scant room for year-end resolution amid ongoing reviews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$21,861
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 71% implied probability for a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) combined license (COL)—authorizing both construction and operation of a new commercial nuclear reactor—in 2026, as no such full approvals have materialized despite accelerating regulatory momentum. The landmark March 4 issuance of a construction permit to TerraPower's 345-MW Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor marked the first for an advanced non-light-water design in over a decade, lifting Yes odds from prior lows but falling short of COL criteria. NRC's March 25 Part 53 rule introduces flexible, risk-informed pathways to expedite advanced reactor licensing, yet multi-year historical timelines and pending dockets like SMR LLC's phased permit leave scant room for year-end resolution amid ongoing reviews.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$21,861
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" has generated $21.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" is "Os EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "EUA concedem licença para novo reator nuclear em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.