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Economia·Indicadores Macro

Crescimento do PIB dos EUA no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

Market icon
Economia·Indicadores Macro

Crescimento do PIB dos EUA no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

abr 30

jan 29, 2027

abr 30

jan 29, 2027

2,5–3,0% 26.3%

2,0–2,5% 24.5%

3,0–3,5% 19%

≥3,5% 14%

Polymarket

$229,832 Vol.

2,5–3,0% 26.3%

2,0–2,5% 24.5%

3,0–3,5% 19%

≥3,5% 14%

Polymarket

$229,832 Vol.

<1,0%

$21,636 Vol.

8%

1,0–1,5%

$5,024 Vol.

9%

1,5–2,0%

$14,617 Vol.

8%

2,0–2,5%

$31,552 Vol.

16%

2,5–3,0%

$13,820 Vol.

26%

3,0–3,5%

$73,946 Vol.

23%

≥3,5%

$69,236 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow and New York Fed nowcasts for Q1 2026 real GDP growth have trended down to 2.0% and 2.1% respectively as of late March, reflecting weaker construction spending and gross private domestic investment amid February's surprise nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 and unemployment rate rise to 4.4%. Despite this, Polymarket traders' consensus assigns the highest implied probability (26.3%) to 2.5–3.0% growth, with 3.0–3.5% (19.0%) and 2.0–2.5% (16.1%) in close contention, betting on resilient personal consumption expenditures to offset drags from investment and trade. Key swing factors include today's retail sales and ISM manufacturing data, tomorrow's international trade report, and the March jobs release Friday, all ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate later this month.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$229,832
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed GDPNow and New York Fed nowcasts for Q1 2026 real GDP growth have trended down to 2.0% and 2.1% respectively as of late March, reflecting weaker construction spending and gross private domestic investment amid February's surprise nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 and unemployment rate rise to 4.4%. Despite this, Polymarket traders' consensus assigns the highest implied probability (26.3%) to 2.5–3.0% growth, with 3.0–3.5% (19.0%) and 2.0–2.5% (16.1%) in close contention, betting on resilient personal consumption expenditures to offset drags from investment and trade. Key swing factors include today's retail sales and ISM manufacturing data, tomorrow's international trade report, and the March jobs release Friday, all ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate later this month.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$229,832
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Crescimento do PIB dos EUA no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2,5–3,0%" at 26%, followed by "3,0–3,5%" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Crescimento do PIB dos EUA no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" has generated $229.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Crescimento do PIB dos EUA no primeiro trimestre de 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Crescimento do PIB dos EUA no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is "2,5–3,0%" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3,0–3,5%" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Crescimento do PIB dos EUA no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.