Market icon
Economia·Uk

Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

Market icon
Economia·Uk

Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

May 14

May 14

0,0-0,3% 40%

0,6-0,9% 23.9%

0,3-0,6% 19.3%

0,9-1,2% 16.8%

Polymarket
NEW

0,0-0,3% 40%

0,6-0,9% 23.9%

0,3-0,6% 19.3%

0,9-1,2% 16.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Negativo

$0 Vol.

7%

0,0-0,3%

$8,738 Vol.

47%

0,3-0,6%

$550 Vol.

25%

0,6-0,9%

$0 Vol.

24%

0,9-1,2%

$0 Vol.

17%

1,2-1,5%

$0 Vol.

1%

1,5-1,8%

$0 Vol.

1%

1,8%+

$690 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, driven by January's flat 0.0% monthly expansion reported by the Office for National Statistics on March 13 and March flash composite PMI slipping to 51.0 from 53.7, consistent with near-stagnant quarterly output. Supporting factors include unemployment climbing to 5.2% in the November 2025-January 2026 period per ONS data and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March 3 downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, implying subdued quarterly rates around 0.3%. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid energy price volatility, curbing optimism; NIESR nowcasts 0.3% q/q growth. First quarterly estimate expected late April.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, driven by January's flat 0.0% monthly expansion reported by the Office for National Statistics on March 13 and March flash composite PMI slipping to 51.0 from 53.7, consistent with near-stagnant quarterly output. Supporting factors include unemployment climbing to 5.2% in the November 2025-January 2026 period per ONS data and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March 3 downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, implying subdued quarterly rates around 0.3%. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid energy price volatility, curbing optimism; NIESR nowcasts 0.3% q/q growth. First quarterly estimate expected late April.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, driven by January's flat 0.0% monthly expansion reported by the Office for National Statistics on March 13 and March flash composite PMI slipping to 51.0 from 53.7, consistent with near-stagnant quarterly output. Supporting factors include unemployment climbing to 5.2% in the November 2025-January 2026 period per ONS data and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March 3 downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, implying subdued quarterly rates around 0.3%. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid energy price volatility, curbing optimism; NIESR nowcasts 0.3% q/q growth. First quarterly estimate expected late April.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, driven by January's flat 0.0% monthly expansion reported by the Office for National Statistics on March 13 and March flash composite PMI slipping to 51.0 from 53.7, consistent with near-stagnant quarterly output. Supporting factors include unemployment climbing to 5.2% in the November 2025-January 2026 period per ONS data and the Office for Budget Responsibility's March 3 downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, implying subdued quarterly rates around 0.3%. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid energy price volatility, curbing optimism; NIESR nowcasts 0.3% q/q growth. First quarterly estimate expected late April.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0,0-0,3%" at 47%, followed by "0,3-0,6%" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is "0,0-0,3%" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0,3-0,6%" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.