In the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff set for May 26, trader consensus favors former Rep. Colin Allred at 70% implied probability over Rep. Julie Johnson, reflecting Allred's first-round lead of 45.5% to 34% on March 3 in the newly redrawn Dallas County district—a safe Democratic seat that backed Kamala Harris by 33 points in 2024. Allred's momentum stems from endorsements by eliminated candidates Carlos Quintanilla and Zeeshan Hafeez, superior fundraising with $950,000 raised since mid-February (no corporate PACs) for a Q1 total exceeding $1.8 million, and a recent GBAO poll showing him ahead 58%-30%. Johnson benefits from incumbency in the overlapping district but trails in resources and early voter support amid a competitive race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoColin Allred 70%
Julie Johnson 31%
Carlos Quintanilla <1%
Zeeshan Hafeez <1%
$54,507 Vol.
$54,507 Vol.
Colin Allred
70%
Julie Johnson
31%
Carlos Quintanilla
<1%
Zeeshan Hafeez
<1%
Colin Allred 70%
Julie Johnson 31%
Carlos Quintanilla <1%
Zeeshan Hafeez <1%
$54,507 Vol.
$54,507 Vol.
Colin Allred
70%
Julie Johnson
31%
Carlos Quintanilla
<1%
Zeeshan Hafeez
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff set for May 26, trader consensus favors former Rep. Colin Allred at 70% implied probability over Rep. Julie Johnson, reflecting Allred's first-round lead of 45.5% to 34% on March 3 in the newly redrawn Dallas County district—a safe Democratic seat that backed Kamala Harris by 33 points in 2024. Allred's momentum stems from endorsements by eliminated candidates Carlos Quintanilla and Zeeshan Hafeez, superior fundraising with $950,000 raised since mid-February (no corporate PACs) for a Q1 total exceeding $1.8 million, and a recent GBAO poll showing him ahead 58%-30%. Johnson benefits from incumbency in the overlapping district but trails in resources and early voter support amid a competitive race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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