Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of an official S-1 filing amid ongoing corporate restructuring and projected $14 billion losses in 2026 despite a $25 billion annualized revenue run-rate. Recent moves like CEO Sam Altman's strategy reset—cancelling Sora video generation, freezing adult-mode features, and prioritizing enterprise tools and the upcoming Spud large language model—signal IPO groundwork to counter Anthropic's competitive push, bolstered by hiring an ex-DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion bridge loan expanding its stake. However, AI regulatory scrutiny, antitrust concerns, and profitability delays until 2029 temper timelines, with multi-trillion-dollar valuation buckets like 1T–1.25T (12.4%) reflecting ambitious but uncertain growth trajectories ahead of potential Q4 filings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCapital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI
Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026 64%
1T–1,25T 12.4%
750B–1T 8.3%
<500B 4.8%
$1,529,799 Vol.
$1,529,799 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
5%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
8%
1T–1,25T
12%
1,25T–1,5T
5%
1,5T+
3%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026
64%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026 64%
1T–1,25T 12.4%
750B–1T 8.3%
<500B 4.8%
$1,529,799 Vol.
$1,529,799 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$255,307 Vol.
5%
500–750B
$137,188 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$128,143 Vol.
8%
1T–1,25T
$169,329 Vol.
12%
1,25T–1,5T
$483,216 Vol.
5%
1,5T+
$87,847 Vol.
3%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026
$268,770 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of an official S-1 filing amid ongoing corporate restructuring and projected $14 billion losses in 2026 despite a $25 billion annualized revenue run-rate. Recent moves like CEO Sam Altman's strategy reset—cancelling Sora video generation, freezing adult-mode features, and prioritizing enterprise tools and the upcoming Spud large language model—signal IPO groundwork to counter Anthropic's competitive push, bolstered by hiring an ex-DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion bridge loan expanding its stake. However, AI regulatory scrutiny, antitrust concerns, and profitability delays until 2029 temper timelines, with multi-trillion-dollar valuation buckets like 1T–1.25T (12.4%) reflecting ambitious but uncertain growth trajectories ahead of potential Q4 filings.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,529,799Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of an official S-1 filing amid ongoing corporate restructuring and projected $14 billion losses in 2026 despite a $25 billion annualized revenue run-rate. Recent moves like CEO Sam Altman's strategy reset—cancelling Sora video generation, freezing adult-mode features, and prioritizing enterprise tools and the upcoming Spud large language model—signal IPO groundwork to counter Anthropic's competitive push, bolstered by hiring an ex-DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion bridge loan expanding its stake. However, AI regulatory scrutiny, antitrust concerns, and profitability delays until 2029 temper timelines, with multi-trillion-dollar valuation buckets like 1T–1.25T (12.4%) reflecting ambitious but uncertain growth trajectories ahead of potential Q4 filings.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,529,799Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (63.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of an official S-1 filing amid ongoing corporate restructuring and projected $14 billion losses in 2026 despite a $25 billion annualized revenue run-rate. Recent moves like CEO Sam Altman's strategy reset—cancelling Sora video generation, freezing adult-mode features, and prioritizing enterprise tools and the upcoming Spud large language model—signal IPO groundwork to counter Anthropic's competitive push, bolstered by hiring an ex-DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion bridge loan expanding its stake. However, AI regulatory scrutiny, antitrust concerns, and profitability delays until 2029 temper timelines, with multi-trillion-dollar valuation buckets like 1T–1.25T (12.4%) reflecting ambitious but uncertain growth trajectories ahead of potential Q4 filings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions