Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella at 27.5% implied probability to win France's 2027 presidential election, driven by National Rally's persistent first-round polling leads around 30% amid post-legislative election fragmentation and voter frustration with the hung parliament under PM Bayrou. Édouard Philippe follows at 17.5%, differentiating via his centrist, pro-business record as Macron's former premier, appealing to moderates wary of extremes. Jean-Luc Mélenchon lags at 9.5%, anchored by his far-left base but limited by polarization. Consolidation could hinge on Macron's implicit endorsement tilting centrists to Philippe, RN governance missteps eroding Bardella's momentum, or left-wing alliances boosting Mélenchon, with no majority forcing unlikely runoffs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPróximas eleições presidenciais francesas
Próximas eleições presidenciais francesas
Jordan Bardella 27%
Édouard Philippe 20%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$14,579,985 Vol.
$14,579,985 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
27%

Édouard Philippe
20%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
8%

Dominique de Villepin
7%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Jean Castex
4%

Gabriel Attal
3%

François Hollande
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

David Lisnard
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Marine Tondelier
<1%

François Ruffin
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
Jordan Bardella 27%
Édouard Philippe 20%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$14,579,985 Vol.
$14,579,985 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
27%

Édouard Philippe
20%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
8%

Dominique de Villepin
7%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Jean Castex
4%

Gabriel Attal
3%

François Hollande
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

David Lisnard
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Marine Tondelier
<1%

François Ruffin
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella at 27.5% implied probability to win France's 2027 presidential election, driven by National Rally's persistent first-round polling leads around 30% amid post-legislative election fragmentation and voter frustration with the hung parliament under PM Bayrou. Édouard Philippe follows at 17.5%, differentiating via his centrist, pro-business record as Macron's former premier, appealing to moderates wary of extremes. Jean-Luc Mélenchon lags at 9.5%, anchored by his far-left base but limited by polarization. Consolidation could hinge on Macron's implicit endorsement tilting centrists to Philippe, RN governance missteps eroding Bardella's momentum, or left-wing alliances boosting Mélenchon, with no majority forcing unlikely runoffs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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