Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 61.5% probability of no named storm forming in the Atlantic before June 1, 2026, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest confirmation of zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential over the next seven days. Pre-season conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures across the main development region and elevated wind shear—continue to suppress tropical cyclone genesis, consistent with historical patterns where early named storms occur in fewer than 25% of years since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from AccuWeather (11-16 named storms post-June 1) and NOAA's 59% chance of El Niño during peak months further bolster no early activity, though NHC resumes daily Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, potentially introducing new data on any low-level troughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoFormas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?
Formas de tempestade nomeadas antes da temporada de furacões?
Sim
$329,676 Vol.
$329,676 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Sim
$329,676 Vol.
$329,676 Vol.
31 mai 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 61.5% probability of no named storm forming in the Atlantic before June 1, 2026, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest confirmation of zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential over the next seven days. Pre-season conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures across the main development region and elevated wind shear—continue to suppress tropical cyclone genesis, consistent with historical patterns where early named storms occur in fewer than 25% of years since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from AccuWeather (11-16 named storms post-June 1) and NOAA's 59% chance of El Niño during peak months further bolster no early activity, though NHC resumes daily Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, potentially introducing new data on any low-level troughs.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$329,676Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 61.5% probability of no named storm forming in the Atlantic before June 1, 2026, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest confirmation of zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential over the next seven days. Pre-season conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures across the main development region and elevated wind shear—continue to suppress tropical cyclone genesis, consistent with historical patterns where early named storms occur in fewer than 25% of years since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from AccuWeather (11-16 named storms post-June 1) and NOAA's 59% chance of El Niño during peak months further bolster no early activity, though NHC resumes daily Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, potentially introducing new data on any low-level troughs.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$329,676Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 61.5% probability of no named storm forming in the Atlantic before June 1, 2026, reflecting the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest confirmation of zero tropical cyclones or disturbances with development potential over the next seven days. Pre-season conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures across the main development region and elevated wind shear—continue to suppress tropical cyclone genesis, consistent with historical patterns where early named storms occur in fewer than 25% of years since 1950. Recent seasonal forecasts from AccuWeather (11-16 named storms post-June 1) and NOAA's 59% chance of El Niño during peak months further bolster no early activity, though NHC resumes daily Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, potentially introducing new data on any low-level troughs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions