Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from March 25 that the company aims to file its S-1 prospectus with regulators this week or next, targeting a mid-June debut that could raise over $75 billion at a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation. This momentum stems from February's blockbuster all-stock acquisition of xAI—valuing it at $250 billion—which integrates advanced AI capabilities into SpaceX's profitable rocket launches, Starlink satellite broadband, and emerging data center ambitions, positioning the combined entity as a tech powerhouse. xAI retains notable 25.5% odds partly due to merger synergies, while OpenAI and Anthropic linger at 4% amid vague mega-IPO rumors but no filing signals; lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show debt maneuvers without imminent plans. Watch for SEC confirmation and Q2 listing catalysts amid volatile tech IPO windows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMaior IPO por valor de mercado em 2026?
Maior IPO por valor de mercado em 2026?
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 4.0%
Waymo <1%
$1,610,694 Vol.
$1,610,694 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Waymo
1%
Kraken
1%
Discord
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.0%
Anthropic 4.0%
Waymo <1%
$1,610,694 Vol.
$1,610,694 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$177,790 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$294,190 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$341,800 Vol.
4%
Waymo
$43,362 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$371,637 Vol.
1%
Discord
$66,988 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$36,856 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$66,189 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$83,629 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,293 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,568 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,392 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from March 25 that the company aims to file its S-1 prospectus with regulators this week or next, targeting a mid-June debut that could raise over $75 billion at a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation. This momentum stems from February's blockbuster all-stock acquisition of xAI—valuing it at $250 billion—which integrates advanced AI capabilities into SpaceX's profitable rocket launches, Starlink satellite broadband, and emerging data center ambitions, positioning the combined entity as a tech powerhouse. xAI retains notable 25.5% odds partly due to merger synergies, while OpenAI and Anthropic linger at 4% amid vague mega-IPO rumors but no filing signals; lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show debt maneuvers without imminent plans. Watch for SEC confirmation and Q2 listing catalysts amid volatile tech IPO windows.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,610,694Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from March 25 that the company aims to file its S-1 prospectus with regulators this week or next, targeting a mid-June debut that could raise over $75 billion at a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation. This momentum stems from February's blockbuster all-stock acquisition of xAI—valuing it at $250 billion—which integrates advanced AI capabilities into SpaceX's profitable rocket launches, Starlink satellite broadband, and emerging data center ambitions, positioning the combined entity as a tech powerhouse. xAI retains notable 25.5% odds partly due to merger synergies, while OpenAI and Anthropic linger at 4% amid vague mega-IPO rumors but no filing signals; lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show debt maneuvers without imminent plans. Watch for SEC confirmation and Q2 listing catalysts amid volatile tech IPO windows.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,610,694Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from March 25 that the company aims to file its S-1 prospectus with regulators this week or next, targeting a mid-June debut that could raise over $75 billion at a $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation. This momentum stems from February's blockbuster all-stock acquisition of xAI—valuing it at $250 billion—which integrates advanced AI capabilities into SpaceX's profitable rocket launches, Starlink satellite broadband, and emerging data center ambitions, positioning the combined entity as a tech powerhouse. xAI retains notable 25.5% odds partly due to merger synergies, while OpenAI and Anthropic linger at 4% amid vague mega-IPO rumors but no filing signals; lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show debt maneuvers without imminent plans. Watch for SEC confirmation and Q2 listing catalysts amid volatile tech IPO windows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions