Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's dominant position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District underpins trader consensus assigning a 94.9% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining the seat. The district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+19) has delivered Fulcher general election victories by 40+ point margins since 2018, reinforced by his May primary win with 78% against intraparty challengers. Democratic nominee Sam McDevitt, a low-fundraising political newcomer, trails significantly in available polls by over 40 points, with no recent catalysts like endorsements or scandals shifting dynamics. While the November 5 ballot remains distant, scenarios like a major Fulcher health event, indictment, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this outlook, though historical precedents in safe seats make such shifts rare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$10,421 Vol.
$10,421 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$10,421 Vol.
$10,421 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$10,421 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's dominant position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District underpins trader consensus assigning a 94.9% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining the seat. The district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+19) has delivered Fulcher general election victories by 40+ point margins since 2018, reinforced by his May primary win with 78% against intraparty challengers. Democratic nominee Sam McDevitt, a low-fundraising political newcomer, trails significantly in available polls by over 40 points, with no recent catalysts like endorsements or scandals shifting dynamics. While the November 5 ballot remains distant, scenarios like a major Fulcher health event, indictment, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this outlook, though historical precedents in safe seats make such shifts rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$10,421Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's dominant position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District underpins trader consensus assigning a 94.9% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining the seat. The district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+19) has delivered Fulcher general election victories by 40+ point margins since 2018, reinforced by his May primary win with 78% against intraparty challengers. Democratic nominee Sam McDevitt, a low-fundraising political newcomer, trails significantly in available polls by over 40 points, with no recent catalysts like endorsements or scandals shifting dynamics. While the November 5 ballot remains distant, scenarios like a major Fulcher health event, indictment, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this outlook, though historical precedents in safe seats make such shifts rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,421Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's dominant position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District underpins trader consensus assigning a 94.9% implied probability to the Republican Party retaining the seat. The district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+19) has delivered Fulcher general election victories by 40+ point margins since 2018, reinforced by his May primary win with 78% against intraparty challengers. Democratic nominee Sam McDevitt, a low-fundraising political newcomer, trails significantly in available polls by over 40 points, with no recent catalysts like endorsements or scandals shifting dynamics. While the November 5 ballot remains distant, scenarios like a major Fulcher health event, indictment, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this outlook, though historical precedents in safe seats make such shifts rare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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