Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Wellington em 1º de abril?
Temperatura mais alta em Wellington em 1º de abril?
17°C 100.0%
10°C ou menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$272,381 Vol.
$272,381 Vol.
10°C ou menos
Não
11°C
Não
12°C
Não
13°C
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Sim
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C ou mais
Não
17°C 100.0%
10°C ou menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$272,381 Vol.
$272,381 Vol.
10°C ou menos
Não
11°C
Não
12°C
Não
13°C
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Sim
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C ou mais
Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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