Ensemble weather models from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Seoul high temperature of 12-14°C on March 24, with 13°C leading at 35.5% implied probability amid tight clustering. Recent developments include a mild southerly flow displacing colder Siberian air, boosting diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies, though lingering stratiform clouds could cap peaks at 12°C. Differentiating factors hinge on model spread: ECMWF ensembles favor 14°C if high pressure strengthens, while GFS leans cooler at 12-13°C due to potential mid-level troughing; historical March 24 averages sit at 12.8°C, underscoring low anomaly risk and high resolution sensitivity to 24-hour updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
13°C 36%
12°C 29%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 8%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
29%
13°C
36%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
8%
13°C 36%
12°C 29%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 8%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
29%
13°C
36%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Seoul high temperature of 12-14°C on March 24, with 13°C leading at 35.5% implied probability amid tight clustering. Recent developments include a mild southerly flow displacing colder Siberian air, boosting diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies, though lingering stratiform clouds could cap peaks at 12°C. Differentiating factors hinge on model spread: ECMWF ensembles favor 14°C if high pressure strengthens, while GFS leans cooler at 12-13°C due to potential mid-level troughing; historical March 24 averages sit at 12.8°C, underscoring low anomaly risk and high resolution sensitivity to 24-hour updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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