Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on March 26 falling in the 52-53°F range, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast models including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and GFS, which converge on persistent marine layer clouds and cool onshore flow capping highs around 52°F amid seasonal Pacific Northwest patterns. Overnight lows in the upper 40s°F and light winds under 10 mph further limit diurnal warming, aligning with climatological averages for late March (typically 54-56°F highs) but tempered by a recent upper-level trough. Realistic challenges include an unexpected breakdown of the marine stratus deck or ridge amplification, potentially boosting temps 3-5°F, though model ensembles show low confidence in such deviations ahead of daily 12Z updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Seattle em 26 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Seattle em 26 de março?
52-53°F 100.0%
43°F ou menos <1%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
$107,980 Vol.
$107,980 Vol.
43°F ou menos
Não
44-45°F
Não
46-47°F
Não
48-49°F
Não
50-51°F
Não
52-53°F
Sim
54-55°F
Não
56-57°F
Não
58-59°F
Não
60-61°F
Não
62°F ou mais
Não
52-53°F 100.0%
43°F ou menos <1%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
$107,980 Vol.
$107,980 Vol.
43°F ou menos
Não
44-45°F
Não
46-47°F
Não
48-49°F
Não
50-51°F
Não
52-53°F
Sim
54-55°F
Não
56-57°F
Não
58-59°F
Não
60-61°F
Não
62°F ou mais
Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seattle's highest temperature on March 26 falling in the 52-53°F range, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast models including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and GFS, which converge on persistent marine layer clouds and cool onshore flow capping highs around 52°F amid seasonal Pacific Northwest patterns. Overnight lows in the upper 40s°F and light winds under 10 mph further limit diurnal warming, aligning with climatological averages for late March (typically 54-56°F highs) but tempered by a recent upper-level trough. Realistic challenges include an unexpected breakdown of the marine stratus deck or ridge amplification, potentially boosting temps 3-5°F, though model ensembles show low confidence in such deviations ahead of daily 12Z updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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