Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's prison time remains tightly contested, with "No Prison Time" and "10-20 years" deadlocked at 27.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in the disgraced Hollywood producer's post-#MeToo legal saga. Currently detained at Rikers Island, he serves a 16-year California rape conviction alongside a New York criminal sex act guilty verdict from his June 2025 retrial, positioning traders toward mid-range sentences unless overturned. Key differentiators include a January 2026 judge's rejection of his new trial bid, ongoing plea talks on an unresolved third-degree rape charge, and his recent courtroom outburst causing a missed hearing on March 25 amid retrial delays potentially past the April 14 start. Health declines and appeals loom as swing factors ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
Tempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
10-20 anos 27.9%
Sem tempo de prisão 27.8%
20-30 anos 21.5%
<5 anos 8.5%
$683,938 Vol.
$683,938 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
28%
<5 anos
9%
5-10 anos
8%
10-20 anos
28%
20-30 anos
22%
Mais de 30 anos
7%
10-20 anos 27.9%
Sem tempo de prisão 27.8%
20-30 anos 21.5%
<5 anos 8.5%
$683,938 Vol.
$683,938 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
$292,419 Vol.
28%
<5 anos
$49,046 Vol.
9%
5-10 anos
$35,252 Vol.
8%
10-20 anos
$121,009 Vol.
28%
20-30 anos
$151,297 Vol.
22%
Mais de 30 anos
$34,916 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's prison time remains tightly contested, with "No Prison Time" and "10-20 years" deadlocked at 27.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in the disgraced Hollywood producer's post-#MeToo legal saga. Currently detained at Rikers Island, he serves a 16-year California rape conviction alongside a New York criminal sex act guilty verdict from his June 2025 retrial, positioning traders toward mid-range sentences unless overturned. Key differentiators include a January 2026 judge's rejection of his new trial bid, ongoing plea talks on an unresolved third-degree rape charge, and his recent courtroom outburst causing a missed hearing on March 25 amid retrial delays potentially past the April 14 start. Health declines and appeals loom as swing factors ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$683,938Data de Término
Dec 31, 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's prison time remains tightly contested, with "No Prison Time" and "10-20 years" deadlocked at 27.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in the disgraced Hollywood producer's post-#MeToo legal saga. Currently detained at Rikers Island, he serves a 16-year California rape conviction alongside a New York criminal sex act guilty verdict from his June 2025 retrial, positioning traders toward mid-range sentences unless overturned. Key differentiators include a January 2026 judge's rejection of his new trial bid, ongoing plea talks on an unresolved third-degree rape charge, and his recent courtroom outburst causing a missed hearing on March 25 amid retrial delays potentially past the April 14 start. Health declines and appeals loom as swing factors ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$683,938Data de Término
Dec 31, 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's prison time remains tightly contested, with "No Prison Time" and "10-20 years" deadlocked at 27.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in the disgraced Hollywood producer's post-#MeToo legal saga. Currently detained at Rikers Island, he serves a 16-year California rape conviction alongside a New York criminal sex act guilty verdict from his June 2025 retrial, positioning traders toward mid-range sentences unless overturned. Key differentiators include a January 2026 judge's rejection of his new trial bid, ongoing plea talks on an unresolved third-degree rape charge, and his recent courtroom outburst causing a missed hearing on March 25 amid retrial delays potentially past the April 14 start. Health declines and appeals loom as swing factors ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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