Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 77.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of an S-1 filing, CEO Jason Citron's repeated focus on profitability over public markets, and a tepid tech IPO environment amid persistent high interest rates curbing valuations. Discord's last private round valued it at $15 billion in 2021, with FY2023 revenue near $600 million but path to sustained profits uncertain amid competition from Microsoft Teams and Slack; this bolsters the <15B closing market cap at 15.8% as the prime alternative, implying a valuation haircut. Recent AI feature rollouts and modest user growth have failed to ignite IPO momentum, keeping higher brackets under 4% combined amid broader market caution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoValor de mercado de fechamento do IPO do Discord
Valor de mercado de fechamento do IPO do Discord
Sem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026 78%
<15B 15.8%
15–20B 2.6%
30B+ <1%
$694,628 Vol.
$694,628 Vol.
<15B
16%
15–20B
3%
20–25B
1%
25–30B
<1%
30B+
1%
Sem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026
78%
Sem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026 78%
<15B 15.8%
15–20B 2.6%
30B+ <1%
$694,628 Vol.
$694,628 Vol.
<15B
16%
15–20B
3%
20–25B
1%
25–30B
<1%
30B+
1%
Sem IPO até 30 de junho de 2026
78%
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 77.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of an S-1 filing, CEO Jason Citron's repeated focus on profitability over public markets, and a tepid tech IPO environment amid persistent high interest rates curbing valuations. Discord's last private round valued it at $15 billion in 2021, with FY2023 revenue near $600 million but path to sustained profits uncertain amid competition from Microsoft Teams and Slack; this bolsters the <15B closing market cap at 15.8% as the prime alternative, implying a valuation haircut. Recent AI feature rollouts and modest user growth have failed to ignite IPO momentum, keeping higher brackets under 4% combined amid broader market caution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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