Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes on Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro—now facing trial in New York on narco-terrorism charges—no additional US drone, missile, or airstrikes have impacted Venezuelan soil, per market resolution criteria. Tensions have eased with the US reopening its embassy in Caracas on March 30 and lifting sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, signaling normalization and cooperation on oil exports amid an interim government transition. Ongoing US strikes target Venezuela-linked narco-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean—reaching a 47th action recently—but these fall outside soil-based definitions. Maduro's trial and humanitarian refugee pressures remain key uncertainties, though diplomatic thaw drives trader consensus toward de-escalation absent major provocations like cartel resurgence or failed talks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$2,526,407 Vol.
31 jan 2026
31 de dezembro
21%
$2,526,407 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$485,106 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes on Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro—now facing trial in New York on narco-terrorism charges—no additional US drone, missile, or airstrikes have impacted Venezuelan soil, per market resolution criteria. Tensions have eased with the US reopening its embassy in Caracas on March 30 and lifting sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, signaling normalization and cooperation on oil exports amid an interim government transition. Ongoing US strikes target Venezuela-linked narco-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean—reaching a 47th action recently—but these fall outside soil-based definitions. Maduro's trial and humanitarian refugee pressures remain key uncertainties, though diplomatic thaw drives trader consensus toward de-escalation absent major provocations like cartel resurgence or failed talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,526,407Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes on Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro—now facing trial in New York on narco-terrorism charges—no additional US drone, missile, or airstrikes have impacted Venezuelan soil, per market resolution criteria. Tensions have eased with the US reopening its embassy in Caracas on March 30 and lifting sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, signaling normalization and cooperation on oil exports amid an interim government transition. Ongoing US strikes target Venezuela-linked narco-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean—reaching a 47th action recently—but these fall outside soil-based definitions. Maduro's trial and humanitarian refugee pressures remain key uncertainties, though diplomatic thaw drives trader consensus toward de-escalation absent major provocations like cartel resurgence or failed talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,526,407Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Following the January 3, 2026, US military strikes on Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro—now facing trial in New York on narco-terrorism charges—no additional US drone, missile, or airstrikes have impacted Venezuelan soil, per market resolution criteria. Tensions have eased with the US reopening its embassy in Caracas on March 30 and lifting sanctions on interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, signaling normalization and cooperation on oil exports amid an interim government transition. Ongoing US strikes target Venezuela-linked narco-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean—reaching a 47th action recently—but these fall outside soil-based definitions. Maduro's trial and humanitarian refugee pressures remain key uncertainties, though diplomatic thaw drives trader consensus toward de-escalation absent major provocations like cartel resurgence or failed talks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions