In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, with incumbent Mike Dunleavy term-limited, trader consensus on Polymarket positions former state Senate minority leader Tom Begich as the frontrunner at 31.5% implied probability, reflecting a late-March release of February polling where he led general election scenarios at 38% amid a fragmented Republican field. Conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (20.5%) appeals as a political outsider with business experience, while ex-state Sen. Click Bishop (20.4%) leverages legislative tenure; both trail due to GOP vote-splitting among over a dozen contenders in the August 18 top-four primary. Consolidation behind a Republican could occur via key endorsements, standout fundraising—where top candidates already report six-figure hauls—or strong debate showings, tipping the ranked-choice general on November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTom Begich 29%
Bernadette Wilson 14%
Edna DeVries 9.1%
Treg Taylor 8.2%
$385,772 Vol.
$385,772 Vol.

Tom Begich
29%

Bernadette Wilson
14%

Edna DeVries
10%

Treg Taylor
14%

Nancy Dahlstrom
7%

Lisa Murkowski
5%

James Parkin
4%

Shelley Hughes
4%

David Bronson
4%

Mary Peltola
3%

Click Bishop
15%

Matt Heilala
1%

Adam Crum
1%
Tom Begich 29%
Bernadette Wilson 14%
Edna DeVries 9.1%
Treg Taylor 8.2%
$385,772 Vol.
$385,772 Vol.

Tom Begich
29%

Bernadette Wilson
14%

Edna DeVries
10%

Treg Taylor
14%

Nancy Dahlstrom
7%

Lisa Murkowski
5%

James Parkin
4%

Shelley Hughes
4%

David Bronson
4%

Mary Peltola
3%

Click Bishop
15%

Matt Heilala
1%

Adam Crum
1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, with incumbent Mike Dunleavy term-limited, trader consensus on Polymarket positions former state Senate minority leader Tom Begich as the frontrunner at 31.5% implied probability, reflecting a late-March release of February polling where he led general election scenarios at 38% amid a fragmented Republican field. Conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (20.5%) appeals as a political outsider with business experience, while ex-state Sen. Click Bishop (20.4%) leverages legislative tenure; both trail due to GOP vote-splitting among over a dozen contenders in the August 18 top-four primary. Consolidation behind a Republican could occur via key endorsements, standout fundraising—where top candidates already report six-figure hauls—or strong debate showings, tipping the ranked-choice general on November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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