Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability that Apple holds the second-largest market capitalization by April 30, reflecting its current ~$2.6 trillion valuation edging out Alphabet's ~$2.4 trillion despite the latter's 15% share surge following robust Q1 earnings on April 25, which highlighted 28% cloud revenue growth and strong ad performance. NVIDIA trails at 7% odds amid ongoing AI chip demand driving its cap toward $2.4 trillion, though volatility tempers expectations; Microsoft remains entrenched at #1 with over $3.1 trillion. Lower probabilities for Tesla, Amazon, and Saudi Aramco stem from wider gaps—sub-$1 trillion for Tesla/Amazon and Aramco's oil-tied sensitivity—positioning them as longshots absent major rallies. Key watch: final week's trading volume and macro risk appetite ahead of month-end close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoApple 66%
Alphabet 26%
NVIDIA 6.3%
Microsoft 1.7%
$520,772 Vol.
$520,772 Vol.

Apple
66%

Alphabet
26%

NVIDIA
6%

Microsoft
2%

Tesla
1%

Amazon
<1%

Saudi Aramco
<1%
Apple 66%
Alphabet 26%
NVIDIA 6.3%
Microsoft 1.7%
$520,772 Vol.
$520,772 Vol.

Apple
66%

Alphabet
26%

NVIDIA
6%

Microsoft
2%

Tesla
1%

Amazon
<1%

Saudi Aramco
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability that Apple holds the second-largest market capitalization by April 30, reflecting its current ~$2.6 trillion valuation edging out Alphabet's ~$2.4 trillion despite the latter's 15% share surge following robust Q1 earnings on April 25, which highlighted 28% cloud revenue growth and strong ad performance. NVIDIA trails at 7% odds amid ongoing AI chip demand driving its cap toward $2.4 trillion, though volatility tempers expectations; Microsoft remains entrenched at #1 with over $3.1 trillion. Lower probabilities for Tesla, Amazon, and Saudi Aramco stem from wider gaps—sub-$1 trillion for Tesla/Amazon and Aramco's oil-tied sensitivity—positioning them as longshots absent major rallies. Key watch: final week's trading volume and macro risk appetite ahead of month-end close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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