Recent surges in Democratic primary turnout—outpacing Republicans in Illinois, North Carolina, South Texas, and Utah caucuses—have elevated trader consensus for 115-120 million votes in the 2026 House popular vote, up from 2022's 108 million, reflecting anti-administration enthusiasm amid low presidential approval ratings and generic ballot advantages for Democrats. Competing Republican super PAC investments exceeding $50 million aim to boost base mobilization, while economic concerns and shifting Latino and youth turnout keep probabilities tightly clustered between 105-130 million. Upcoming April special elections and primaries in battlegrounds like Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia will test these dynamics and could widen separation among leading outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado115-120 milhões 20%
125-130 milhões 17%
110-115 milhões 16%
120-125 milhões 16%
<85 milhões
11%
85-90 milhões
11%
90-95 milhões
5%
95-100 milhões
8%
100-105 milhões
9%
105-110 milhões
12%
110-115 milhões
16%
115-120 milhões
20%
120-125 milhões
16%
125-130 milhões
17%
130 milhões+
10%
115-120 milhões 20%
125-130 milhões 17%
110-115 milhões 16%
120-125 milhões 16%
<85 milhões
11%
85-90 milhões
11%
90-95 milhões
5%
95-100 milhões
8%
100-105 milhões
9%
105-110 milhões
12%
110-115 milhões
16%
115-120 milhões
20%
120-125 milhões
16%
125-130 milhões
17%
130 milhões+
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent surges in Democratic primary turnout—outpacing Republicans in Illinois, North Carolina, South Texas, and Utah caucuses—have elevated trader consensus for 115-120 million votes in the 2026 House popular vote, up from 2022's 108 million, reflecting anti-administration enthusiasm amid low presidential approval ratings and generic ballot advantages for Democrats. Competing Republican super PAC investments exceeding $50 million aim to boost base mobilization, while economic concerns and shifting Latino and youth turnout keep probabilities tightly clustered between 105-130 million. Upcoming April special elections and primaries in battlegrounds like Georgia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Virginia will test these dynamics and could widen separation among leading outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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