Name: Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March?
Start: 2023-12-27T19:56:02.067Z
End: 2024-02-29T00:00:00Z

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If any Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between December 26, 2023, and February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March?

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Zal de Doge-1 Lunar Mission vóór 2027 gelanceerd worden?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Zal SpaceX in 2026 200 of meer lanceringen hebben?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Zal SpaceX precies 11 lanceringen hebben in januari?

Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:

- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.

If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SpaceX gaat naar de beurs via het 'SPAR'-bedrijf van Bill Ackman?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Glenn Flight 3 (NG-3) successfully launches from its launch pad by the specified date, 11:59PM ET.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin (https://www.youtube.com/@blueorigin/streams), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of New Glenn with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Zal New Glenn vlucht 3 lanceren vóór 31 januari 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Menselijke maanlanding in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

SpaceX beursgang sluit af met een marktkapitalisatie boven $1T?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Zal de Starship voor SpaceX Starship-vluchtproef 12 een succesvolle waterlanding bereiken?

This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.

If a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS).

If SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.

If SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Zal de openbare ticker van SpaceX $STAR zijn?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if StandX officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Zal StandX vóór 31 maart een token lanceren?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the terminal will not be considered for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Zal de olieterminal van Kharg Island vóór 31 januari geraakt worden?

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Morgan Stanley of een van zijn underwriting dochterondernemingen optreden als hoofdonderwriter bij de eerste openbare aanbieding van SpaceX?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Zal Base voor 31 december 2026 een token lanceren?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Zal MetaMask tegen 30 september 2026 een token uitbrengen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Elon Musk voor 30 juni bij Joe Rogan langskomen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

Nog een Elon-baby vóór 30 juni?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal X in 2026 een USD stablecoin lanceren?

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Zal SpaceX's marktkapitalisatie groter zijn dan $1 biljoen bij de sluiting van de beurs op de IPO-dag?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Nansen vóór 31 december 2026 een token lanceren?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Zal Felix Protocol vóór 31 december 2026 een token lanceren?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

StandX FDV boven $800M één dag na de lancering?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

Er gebeurt nooit iets: Elon Editie

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

Zal Half-Life 3 vóór 2027 worden aangekondigd?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Arc een token lanceren vóór 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Zal Infinex een token lanceren vóór 30 juni 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ostium Labs officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ostium Labs, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Zal Ostium een token lanceren vóór 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Phantom officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Phantom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Phantom uiterlijk 31 december 2026 een token lanceren?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spark officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Spark (https://x.com/spark), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Spark vóór 31 december 2026 een token lanceren

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Zal Axiom een token lanceren vóór 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched.

The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Loopscale (http://x.com/Loopscale) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Loopscale, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Loopscale vóór 31 december 2026 een token lanceren?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Variational een token lanceren vóór 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer eruit voor 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Zal Tesla Optimus uitbrengen vóór 30 juni 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal de VS bevestigen dat buitenaardse wezens bestaan vóór 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Sentient's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Sentient doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Sentient FDV boven $200M één dag na de lancering?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aztec officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Aztec (https://aztec.network/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March?

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Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March?

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Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March?

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Will SpaceX's Starship launch before March?

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