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What will the Margin of Victory be in the Georgia runoff?

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What will the Margin of Victory be in the Georgia runoff?

$256,272 Vol.

Dec 7, 2022
Polymarket

$256,272 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

2.5%+

$194,683 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

5.0%+

$61,589 Vol.

No

In the 2022 midterm election for United States Senator from Georgia, no candidate received a majority of votes. This has triggered a run-off election between the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes: Raphael Warnock (Democrat) and Herschel Walker (Republican). The runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is scheduled for December 6, 2022. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 2.5% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates. For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory). Determination of the margin of victory in the Georgia Senate runoff election will be based on official election results (e.g. https://sos.ga.gov/). In the 2022 midterm election for United States Senator from Georgia, no candidate received a majority of votes. This has triggered a run-off election between the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes: Raphael Warnock (Democrat) and Herschel Walker (Republican). The runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is scheduled for December 6, 2022. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 5.0% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates. For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory). Determination of the margin of victory in the Georgia Senate runoff election will be based on official election results (e.g. https://sos.ga.gov/).

In the 2022 midterm election for United States Senator from Georgia, no candidate received a majority of votes. This has triggered a run-off election between the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes: Raphael Warnock (Democrat) and Herschel Walker (Republican).

The runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is scheduled for December 6, 2022.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 5.0% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates.

For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory).

Determination of the margin of victory in the Georgia Senate runoff election will be based on official election results (e.g. https://sos.ga.gov/).
Volume
$256,272
End Date
Dec 6, 2022
Market Opened
Nov 17, 2022, 7:00 PM ET
In the 2022 midterm election for United States Senator from Georgia, no candidate received a majority of votes. This has triggered a run-off election between the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes: Raphael Warnock (Democrat) and Herschel Walker (Republican). The runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is scheduled for December 6, 2022. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 5.0% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates. For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory). Determination of the margin of victory in the Georgia Senate runoff election will be based on official election results (e.g. https://sos.ga.gov/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

In the 2022 midterm election for United States Senator from Georgia, no candidate received a majority of votes. This has triggered a run-off election between the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes: Raphael Warnock (Democrat) and Herschel Walker (Republican). The runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is scheduled for December 6, 2022. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 2.5% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates. For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory). Determination of the margin of victory in the Georgia Senate runoff election will be based on official election results (e.g. https://sos.ga.gov/). In the 2022 midterm election for United States Senator from Georgia, no candidate received a majority of votes. This has triggered a run-off election between the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes: Raphael Warnock (Democrat) and Herschel Walker (Republican). The runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is scheduled for December 6, 2022. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 5.0% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates. For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory). Determination of the margin of victory in the Georgia Senate runoff election will be based on official election results (e.g. https://sos.ga.gov/).

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"What will the Margin of Victory be in the Georgia runoff?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2.5%+" at 100%, followed by "5.0%+" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

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The current frontrunner for "What will the Margin of Victory be in the Georgia runoff?" is "2.5%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5.0%+" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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