Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's department has seen four staff departures in recent weeks amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, including travel fraud and an inappropriate relationship involving her security detail, fueling trader consensus at 57.5% odds for her as the next cabinet exit following Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March 6 ouster. White House pressure forced out two top aides on March 3, with further resignations on March 19-25, amplifying scrutiny on Chavez-DeRemer despite her focus on deregulation and job growth. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI, 14.9%) and Pete Hegseth (Defense, 10.2%) trail amid prior confirmation controversies, though President Trump has defended them publicly; "None before 2027" sits at 6.8% as stability holds elsewhere pending further developments like confirmation hearings or policy clashes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
Tulsi Gabbard 14.9%
Pete Hegseth 10.6%
None before 2027 6.8%
$2,532,989 Vol.
$2,532,989 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
57%
Tulsi Gabbard
15%
Pete Hegseth
11%
None before 2027
7%
Howard Lutnick
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Scott Bessent
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Linda McMahon
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
Tulsi Gabbard 14.9%
Pete Hegseth 10.6%
None before 2027 6.8%
$2,532,989 Vol.
$2,532,989 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,486 Vol.
57%
Tulsi Gabbard
$727,293 Vol.
15%
Pete Hegseth
$676,701 Vol.
11%
None before 2027
$756,774 Vol.
7%
Howard Lutnick
$26,261 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$7,271 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$4,200 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,824 Vol.
2%
Scott Bessent
$4,627 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,701 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$6,119 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$4,858 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$67,322 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$4,182 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,625 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,901 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,916 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$3,581 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$71,083 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$4,014 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$4,201 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$4,133 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,619 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$10,298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's department has seen four staff departures in recent weeks amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, including travel fraud and an inappropriate relationship involving her security detail, fueling trader consensus at 57.5% odds for her as the next cabinet exit following Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March 6 ouster. White House pressure forced out two top aides on March 3, with further resignations on March 19-25, amplifying scrutiny on Chavez-DeRemer despite her focus on deregulation and job growth. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI, 14.9%) and Pete Hegseth (Defense, 10.2%) trail amid prior confirmation controversies, though President Trump has defended them publicly; "None before 2027" sits at 6.8% as stability holds elsewhere pending further developments like confirmation hearings or policy clashes.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$2,532,989End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's department has seen four staff departures in recent weeks amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, including travel fraud and an inappropriate relationship involving her security detail, fueling trader consensus at 57.5% odds for her as the next cabinet exit following Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March 6 ouster. White House pressure forced out two top aides on March 3, with further resignations on March 19-25, amplifying scrutiny on Chavez-DeRemer despite her focus on deregulation and job growth. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI, 14.9%) and Pete Hegseth (Defense, 10.2%) trail amid prior confirmation controversies, though President Trump has defended them publicly; "None before 2027" sits at 6.8% as stability holds elsewhere pending further developments like confirmation hearings or policy clashes.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$2,532,989End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's department has seen four staff departures in recent weeks amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, including travel fraud and an inappropriate relationship involving her security detail, fueling trader consensus at 57.5% odds for her as the next cabinet exit following Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's March 6 ouster. White House pressure forced out two top aides on March 3, with further resignations on March 19-25, amplifying scrutiny on Chavez-DeRemer despite her focus on deregulation and job growth. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI, 14.9%) and Pete Hegseth (Defense, 10.2%) trail amid prior confirmation controversies, though President Trump has defended them publicly; "None before 2027" sits at 6.8% as stability holds elsewhere pending further developments like confirmation hearings or policy clashes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions