Market icon

Next leader out of power in 2025?

Market icon

Next leader out of power in 2025?

None in 2025 100.0%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President <1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP <1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM <1%

Polymarket

$2,242,167 Vol.

None in 2025 100.0%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President <1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP <1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM <1%

Polymarket

$2,242,167 Vol.

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$34,366 Vol.

No

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$40,288 Vol.

No

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$101,780 Vol.

No

Newsom - California Governor

$29,030 Vol.

No

Starmer - UK PM

$52,843 Vol.

No

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$96,872 Vol.

No

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$137,247 Vol.

No

Lecornu - France PM

$101,635 Vol.

No

Takaichi - Japan PM

$190,847 Vol.

No

None in 2025

$326,884 Vol.

Yes

Abbas - President of Palestine

$68,250 Vol.

No

Macron - France President

$38,359 Vol.

No

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$38,148 Vol.

No

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

$106,133 Vol.

No

Albanese - Australia PM

$56,815 Vol.

No

Milei - Argentina President

$28,766 Vol.

No

Trump - USA President

$151,576 Vol.

No

Putin - Russia President

$63,709 Vol.

No

Maduro - Venezuela President

$215,906 Vol.

No

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$268,097 Vol.

No

Merz - German Chancellor

$36,396 Vol.

No

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$56,069 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,242,167
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 21, 2025, 2:30 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "None in 2025" at 100%, followed by "Erdoğan - Türkiye President" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power in 2025?" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power in 2025?," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power in 2025?" is "None in 2025" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Erdoğan - Türkiye President" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.