Vladimir Putin’s constitutional eligibility to serve until 2036, combined with recent government reshuffles that dilute potential rivals like Prime Minister Mishustin while installing younger loyalists, underpins trader consensus on low near-term removal odds. His approval ratings have stabilized near 72-77% after a post-2025 decline, and United Russia secured a commanding State Duma majority in September 2026. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks with Ukraine, resumed in Abu Dhabi, show Moscow maintaining core territorial and security demands without signals of leadership transition. Analysts note deliberate steps toward regime continuity and generational renewal rather than succession planning, leaving health events or elite fractures as the primary variables that could alter probabilities before mid-2027.