Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s political system and military command amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, with his current presidential term extending to 2030 under constitutional provisions allowing further extensions. Recent US-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 advanced limited humanitarian measures and prisoner exchanges but produced no shifts in Moscow’s core demands on territory or European security architecture, reinforcing trader views of continuity. Kremlin statements have dismissed health-related speculation, while government adjustments following recent elections emphasize technocratic continuity rather than transition. No scheduled events or verified developments through late 2026 indicate near-term removal, keeping short-term market probabilities low as traders price in the absence of acute internal or external pressures capable of forcing an exit.