Polymarket traders assign a 62% implied probability to NVIDIA (NVDA) closing above $135 by March 31, propelled by blowout Q4 fiscal 2025 results showing $39.3 billion in revenue—a 93% year-over-year surge fueled by unrelenting AI data center demand. Sustained hyperscaler capex from Meta and Microsoft bolsters bullish sentiment, with NVDA's current price at $132.75 testing key $133 resistance amid 45x forward P/E valuation. Yet, risks loom from Blackwell production ramp-up delays and potential China export curbs, capping upside. The March 19 FOMC meeting could sway tech multiples if dot-plot signals persistent high rates, while historical end-of-quarter volatility averages 4.2% for NVDA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$15,904 Vol.
$120
100%
$130
99%
$140
90%
$150
95%
$160
92%
$170
84%
$180
58%
$190
27%
$200
11%
$210
4%
$220
2%
$230
1%
$240
2%
$15,904 Vol.
$120
100%
$130
99%
$140
90%
$150
95%
$160
92%
$170
84%
$180
58%
$190
27%
$200
11%
$210
4%
$220
2%
$230
1%
$240
2%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 62% implied probability to NVIDIA (NVDA) closing above $135 by March 31, propelled by blowout Q4 fiscal 2025 results showing $39.3 billion in revenue—a 93% year-over-year surge fueled by unrelenting AI data center demand. Sustained hyperscaler capex from Meta and Microsoft bolsters bullish sentiment, with NVDA's current price at $132.75 testing key $133 resistance amid 45x forward P/E valuation. Yet, risks loom from Blackwell production ramp-up delays and potential China export curbs, capping upside. The March 19 FOMC meeting could sway tech multiples if dot-plot signals persistent high rates, while historical end-of-quarter volatility averages 4.2% for NVDA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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