George Russell leads trader consensus for pole position at the Japanese Grand Prix with 60% implied probability, driven by Mercedes' dominant pace topping both FP1 and FP2 at Suzuka, where his clean laps on soft tires showcased superior single-lap speed through the high-speed corners like 130R and Spoon. Teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli, the impressive rookie, sits second at 26.5% after posting the second-fastest times in both sessions, highlighting the W16's low-drag qualifying setup advantage on this power-sensitive track. Charles Leclerc (6%) and Lewis Hamilton (5.8%) trail for Ferrari, hampered by minor setup tweaks lagging Mercedes' sector times, while Red Bull's Max Verstappen (2.8%) struggles with understeer exposed in practice. Clear weather and no major incidents keep focus on qualifying trim tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedGeorge Russell 60%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 27%
Charles Leclerc 6%
Lewis Hamilton 5.8%
$29,158 Vol.
$29,158 Vol.
George Russell
60%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
27%
Charles Leclerc
6%
Lewis Hamilton
6%
Max Verstappen
3%
Lando Norris
3%
Oscar Piastri
2%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Nico Hulkenberg
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
Oliver Bearman
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
George Russell 60%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 27%
Charles Leclerc 6%
Lewis Hamilton 5.8%
$29,158 Vol.
$29,158 Vol.
George Russell
60%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
27%
Charles Leclerc
6%
Lewis Hamilton
6%
Max Verstappen
3%
Lando Norris
3%
Oscar Piastri
2%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Nico Hulkenberg
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
Oliver Bearman
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...George Russell leads trader consensus for pole position at the Japanese Grand Prix with 60% implied probability, driven by Mercedes' dominant pace topping both FP1 and FP2 at Suzuka, where his clean laps on soft tires showcased superior single-lap speed through the high-speed corners like 130R and Spoon. Teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli, the impressive rookie, sits second at 26.5% after posting the second-fastest times in both sessions, highlighting the W16's low-drag qualifying setup advantage on this power-sensitive track. Charles Leclerc (6%) and Lewis Hamilton (5.8%) trail for Ferrari, hampered by minor setup tweaks lagging Mercedes' sector times, while Red Bull's Max Verstappen (2.8%) struggles with understeer exposed in practice. Clear weather and no major incidents keep focus on qualifying trim tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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