Trader consensus shows closely matched implied probabilities between the June 15–21 and June 22–28 windows for GPT-5.6, driven by uncertainty in OpenAI’s internal testing and release cadence for its next large language model iteration. Competitive dynamics with Anthropic’s Claude series and Google’s Gemini models create pressure on feature timing and benchmark performance, particularly around reasoning capabilities and AI safety evaluations. Key differentiators include OpenAI’s history of iterative updates versus major version leaps, supply of compute resources, and any last-minute integration of new training techniques. Recent executive commentary and developer ecosystem signals remain the primary near-term catalysts that could tilt the market-implied odds before late June.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日June 15–June 21 39%
June 22–June 28 37.0%
Not released by June 28 16.0%
June 8–June 14 <1%
$159,921 Vol.
$159,921 Vol.
2026/06/28
June 8–June 14
<1%
June 15–June 21
39%
June 22–June 28
37%
Not released by June 28
16%
June 15–June 21 39%
June 22–June 28 37.0%
Not released by June 28 16.0%
June 8–June 14 <1%
$159,921 Vol.
$159,921 Vol.
2026/06/28
June 8–June 14
$39,348 Vol.
<1%
June 15–June 21
$27,658 Vol.
39%
June 22–June 28
$19,142 Vol.
37%
Not released by June 28
$31,346 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus shows closely matched implied probabilities between the June 15–21 and June 22–28 windows for GPT-5.6, driven by uncertainty in OpenAI’s internal testing and release cadence for its next large language model iteration. Competitive dynamics with Anthropic’s Claude series and Google’s Gemini models create pressure on feature timing and benchmark performance, particularly around reasoning capabilities and AI safety evaluations. Key differentiators include OpenAI’s history of iterative updates versus major version leaps, supply of compute resources, and any last-minute integration of new training techniques. Recent executive commentary and developer ecosystem signals remain the primary near-term catalysts that could tilt the market-implied odds before late June.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
音量
$159,921終了日
2026/06/28マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus shows closely matched implied probabilities between the June 15–21 and June 22–28 windows for GPT-5.6, driven by uncertainty in OpenAI’s internal testing and release cadence for its next large language model iteration. Competitive dynamics with Anthropic’s Claude series and Google’s Gemini models create pressure on feature timing and benchmark performance, particularly around reasoning capabilities and AI safety evaluations. Key differentiators include OpenAI’s history of iterative updates versus major version leaps, supply of compute resources, and any last-minute integration of new training techniques. Recent executive commentary and developer ecosystem signals remain the primary near-term catalysts that could tilt the market-implied odds before late June.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$159,921終了日
2026/06/28マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows closely matched implied probabilities between the June 15–21 and June 22–28 windows for GPT-5.6, driven by uncertainty in OpenAI’s internal testing and release cadence for its next large language model iteration. Competitive dynamics with Anthropic’s Claude series and Google’s Gemini models create pressure on feature timing and benchmark performance, particularly around reasoning capabilities and AI safety evaluations. Key differentiators include OpenAI’s history of iterative updates versus major version leaps, supply of compute resources, and any last-minute integration of new training techniques. Recent executive commentary and developer ecosystem signals remain the primary near-term catalysts that could tilt the market-implied odds before late June.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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