Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M domestic gross leading at 39% implied probability, buoyed by reports of exceptionally strong presales in the past 48 hours projecting up to $175M-$200M over five days including Wednesday previews. This builds on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M launch that exploded to over $1B worldwide, amplified by recent hype from the final trailer, surprise Fox McCloud cameo reveal, and Bowser Jr. promotions driving family audience buzz. Tracking estimates have trended upward from mid-$150M three-day ranges earlier in March, though competition and weather could cap upside; final pre-sales data and April 1 release will be decisive.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 40%
190-200m 15.6%
170-180m 14.0%
180-190m 13.4%
$248,758 Vol.
$248,758 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
13%
170-180m
14%
180-190m
13%
190-200m
16%
>200m
40%
>200m 40%
190-200m 15.6%
170-180m 14.0%
180-190m 13.4%
$248,758 Vol.
$248,758 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$18,542 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$19,039 Vol.
13%
170-180m
$17,507 Vol.
14%
180-190m
$17,428 Vol.
13%
190-200m
$17,203 Vol.
16%
>200m
$159,039 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M domestic gross leading at 39% implied probability, buoyed by reports of exceptionally strong presales in the past 48 hours projecting up to $175M-$200M over five days including Wednesday previews. This builds on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M launch that exploded to over $1B worldwide, amplified by recent hype from the final trailer, surprise Fox McCloud cameo reveal, and Bowser Jr. promotions driving family audience buzz. Tracking estimates have trended upward from mid-$150M three-day ranges earlier in March, though competition and weather could cap upside; final pre-sales data and April 1 release will be decisive.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
音量
$248,758終了日
Apr 6, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M domestic gross leading at 39% implied probability, buoyed by reports of exceptionally strong presales in the past 48 hours projecting up to $175M-$200M over five days including Wednesday previews. This builds on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M launch that exploded to over $1B worldwide, amplified by recent hype from the final trailer, surprise Fox McCloud cameo reveal, and Bowser Jr. promotions driving family audience buzz. Tracking estimates have trended upward from mid-$150M three-day ranges earlier in March, though competition and weather could cap upside; final pre-sales data and April 1 release will be decisive.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$248,758終了日
Apr 6, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M domestic gross leading at 39% implied probability, buoyed by reports of exceptionally strong presales in the past 48 hours projecting up to $175M-$200M over five days including Wednesday previews. This builds on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M launch that exploded to over $1B worldwide, amplified by recent hype from the final trailer, surprise Fox McCloud cameo reveal, and Bowser Jr. promotions driving family audience buzz. Tracking estimates have trended upward from mid-$150M three-day ranges earlier in March, though competition and weather could cap upside; final pre-sales data and April 1 release will be decisive.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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