Trader consensus in the Terrebonne by-election market heavily favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5%, reflecting recent polls showing her leading by 10-15 points in this Quebec swing riding, previously held by the Liberals until MP Génvieve Gosselin-Orpanal's death prompted the November 4 vote. Conservative Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné trails at 34%, buoyed by national party momentum under Pierre Poilievre but hampered by weaker Quebec penetration and Bloc Québécois vote-splitting risks, though Maxime Beaudoin's 0.1% odds signal minimal separatist threat. Minor candidates languish amid name recognition gaps. A fresh Abacus Data poll last week widened Auguste's edge on local issues like housing and affordability, while advance voting starts soon, potentially solidifying the Liberal tilt absent surprises.