Traders' strong consensus against a Canadian federal election being called by June 30, 2025—reflected in 91.5% odds on "No"—stems from the absence of any official dissolution of Parliament and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's repeated commitment to the fixed-date election on October 20, 2025. The Liberal minority government has weathered recent confidence votes, including the June 2024 budget measure backed by NDP abstentions despite their terminated supply-and-confidence deal. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's no-confidence threats persist amid polls showing his party leading by over 20 points, but low parliamentary support and Trudeau's recent cabinet shuffle signal stability over snap election risks. Upcoming fall session events could shift dynamics, though historical precedents favor enduring until the mandated date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$68,603 Vol.
$68,603 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$68,603 Vol.
$68,603 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
音量
$68,603終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$68,603終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' strong consensus against a Canadian federal election being called by June 30, 2025—reflected in 91.5% odds on "No"—stems from the absence of any official dissolution of Parliament and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's repeated commitment to the fixed-date election on October 20, 2025. The Liberal minority government has weathered recent confidence votes, including the June 2024 budget measure backed by NDP abstentions despite their terminated supply-and-confidence deal. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's no-confidence threats persist amid polls showing his party leading by over 20 points, but low parliamentary support and Trudeau's recent cabinet shuffle signal stability over snap election risks. Upcoming fall session events could shift dynamics, though historical precedents favor enduring until the mandated date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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