Canada’s population has declined for two consecutive quarters through early 2026, with Statistics Canada recording a 0.2 percent drop of over 103,000 people between October 2025 and January 2026—the first such annual decline in decades. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat overall growth for the full year as net outflows of non-permanent residents offset gains from permanent immigration. Federal policy under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan has sharply reduced temporary resident targets to 385,000 arrivals while holding permanent resident admissions at 380,000, aiming to bring the temporary share below 5 percent of the total population by late 2027. These measures, introduced to ease housing and infrastructure pressures after earlier rapid growth, form the main driver behind the 61 percent trader-implied probability of a net decrease this year.