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政治·ピエール

ポワリエフル氏は2026年12月31日までに保守党党首に就任しますか？

Market icon
政治·ピエール

ポワリエフル氏は2026年12月31日までに保守党党首に就任しますか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

はい

15% chance
Polymarket

$116,330 Vol.

はい

15% chance
Polymarket

$116,330 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre's overwhelming 87.4% approval in the mandatory post-election leadership review at the January 2026 Calgary convention—triggered by the party's April 2025 federal election defeat to Mark Carney's Liberals—has solidified his position as Official Opposition head, driving the strong trader consensus against his removal by year-end. Despite losing his initial riding but reclaiming a seat via Alberta byelection, Poilievre shows no signs of stepping down amid active caucus management and recent public engagements on interprovincial trade, energy policy, and U.S. relations ahead of potential Trump-era diplomacy. Absent major scandals or no-confidence triggers, markets price in sustained party unity through 2026.

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre's overwhelming 87.4% approval in the mandatory post-election leadership review at the January 2026 Calgary convention—triggered by the party's April 2025 federal election defeat to Mark Carney's Liberals—has solidified his position as Official Opposition head, driving the strong trader consensus against his removal by year-end. Despite losing his initial riding but reclaiming a seat via Alberta byelection, Poilievre shows no signs of stepping down amid active caucus management and recent public engagements on interprovincial trade, energy policy, and U.S. relations ahead of potential Trump-era diplomacy. Absent major scandals or no-confidence triggers, markets price in sustained party unity through 2026.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre's overwhelming 87.4% approval in the mandatory post-election leadership review at the January 2026 Calgary convention—triggered by the party's April 2025 federal election defeat to Mark Carney's Liberals—has solidified his position as Official Opposition head, driving the strong trader consensus against his removal by year-end. Despite losing his initial riding but reclaiming a seat via Alberta byelection, Poilievre shows no signs of stepping down amid active caucus management and recent public engagements on interprovincial trade, energy policy, and U.S. relations ahead of potential Trump-era diplomacy. Absent major scandals or no-confidence triggers, markets price in sustained party unity through 2026.

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre's overwhelming 87.4% approval in the mandatory post-election leadership review at the January 2026 Calgary convention—triggered by the party's April 2025 federal election defeat to Mark Carney's Liberals—has solidified his position as Official Opposition head, driving the strong trader consensus against his removal by year-end. Despite losing his initial riding but reclaiming a seat via Alberta byelection, Poilievre shows no signs of stepping down amid active caucus management and recent public engagements on interprovincial trade, energy policy, and U.S. relations ahead of potential Trump-era diplomacy. Absent major scandals or no-confidence triggers, markets price in sustained party unity through 2026.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ポワリエフル氏は2026年12月31日までに保守党党首に就任しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ポワリエーヴルは2026年12月31日までに保守党の党首を退任するか？」で14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、14¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に14%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ポワリエフル氏は2026年12月31日までに保守党党首に就任しますか？」は$116.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ポワリエフル氏は2026年12月31日までに保守党党首に就任しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ポワリエフル氏は2026年12月31日までに保守党党首に就任しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「ポワリエーヴルは2026年12月31日までに保守党の党首を退任するか？」で14%であり、市場がこの結果に14%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ポワリエフル氏は2026年12月31日までに保守党党首に就任しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。