Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election on December 16, driven by recent Léger and Angus Reid polls showing her 15-20 point lead over rivals amid Bloc Québécois weaknesses following incumbent Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay's resignation. Conservative Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné holds 34% on national party momentum and her profile as a sitting MP, while Bloc's Maxime Beaudoin and independents like Maria Cantore, Adrienne Charles, and Benjamin Rankin hover near 0.1% due to poor local traction. Auguste's edge stems from strong volunteer turnout and suburban Quebec Liberal gains, with advance voting this week as a potential catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Terrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
タチアナ・オーギュスト 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 35%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
NEW
$22,409 Vol.
NEW
$22,409 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
タチアナ・オーギュスト
62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
35%
Maxime Beaudoin
<1%
Maria Cantore
<1%
Adrienne Charles
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
<1%
タチアナ・オーギュスト 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 35%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
NEW
$22,409 Vol.
NEW
$22,409 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
タチアナ・オーギュスト
$8,626 Vol.
62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
$4,252 Vol.
35%
Maxime Beaudoin
$2,363 Vol.
<1%
Maria Cantore
$2,377 Vol.
<1%
Adrienne Charles
$2,330 Vol.
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
$2,471 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
音量
$22,409終了日
Apr 13, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
音量
$22,409終了日
Apr 13, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election on December 16, driven by recent Léger and Angus Reid polls showing her 15-20 point lead over rivals amid Bloc Québécois weaknesses following incumbent Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay's resignation. Conservative Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné holds 34% on national party momentum and her profile as a sitting MP, while Bloc's Maxime Beaudoin and independents like Maria Cantore, Adrienne Charles, and Benjamin Rankin hover near 0.1% due to poor local traction. Auguste's edge stems from strong volunteer turnout and suburban Quebec Liberal gains, with advance voting this week as a potential catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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