Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to "No," reflecting Luigi Mangione's firm pretrial detention after bail denials in Pennsylvania and New York courts in December 2024, amid first-degree murder charges for the UnitedHealthcare CEO slaying. Verified court proceedings confirm no release path, with discovery, motions, and dual state-federal cases likely extending well beyond 2027—even absent conviction—given typical timelines for high-profile prosecutions. His viral pop culture status, amplified by social media support and "Free Luigi" merch, underscores public fascination but hasn't influenced judges assessing flight risk and evidence strength. Upsets remain possible via successful appeals, plea deals, or medical releases tied to his chronic Lyme disease claims, though precedents favor extended custody.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to "No," reflecting Luigi Mangione's firm pretrial detention after bail denials in Pennsylvania and New York courts in December 2024, amid first-degree murder charges for the UnitedHealthcare CEO slaying. Verified court proceedings confirm no release path, with discovery, motions, and dual state-federal cases likely extending well beyond 2027—even absent conviction—given typical timelines for high-profile prosecutions. His viral pop culture status, amplified by social media support and "Free Luigi" merch, underscores public fascination but hasn't influenced judges assessing flight risk and evidence strength. Upsets remain possible via successful appeals, plea deals, or medical releases tied to his chronic Lyme disease claims, though precedents favor extended custody.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to "No," reflecting Luigi Mangione's firm pretrial detention after bail denials in Pennsylvania and New York courts in December 2024, amid first-degree murder charges for the UnitedHealthcare CEO slaying. Verified court proceedings confirm no release path, with discovery, motions, and dual state-federal cases likely extending well beyond 2027—even absent conviction—given typical timelines for high-profile prosecutions. His viral pop culture status, amplified by social media support and "Free Luigi" merch, underscores public fascination but hasn't influenced judges assessing flight risk and evidence strength. Upsets remain possible via successful appeals, plea deals, or medical releases tied to his chronic Lyme disease claims, though precedents favor extended custody.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 93% implied probability to "No," reflecting Luigi Mangione's firm pretrial detention after bail denials in Pennsylvania and New York courts in December 2024, amid first-degree murder charges for the UnitedHealthcare CEO slaying. Verified court proceedings confirm no release path, with discovery, motions, and dual state-federal cases likely extending well beyond 2027—even absent conviction—given typical timelines for high-profile prosecutions. His viral pop culture status, amplified by social media support and "Free Luigi" merch, underscores public fascination but hasn't influenced judges assessing flight risk and evidence strength. Upsets remain possible via successful appeals, plea deals, or medical releases tied to his chronic Lyme disease claims, though precedents favor extended custody.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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