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政治·裁判所

ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されました

Market icon
政治·裁判所

ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されました

はい

3% chance
Polymarket
NEW

はい

3% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.9% for Jack Smith facing charges by March 31, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, grand jury activity, or official announcements targeting the former special counsel over a year into the Trump administration. Earlier probes announced in August 2025 by US officials have yielded no public progress, while recent developments—including a February 2026 federal judge's permanent block on releasing Smith's classified documents report, January congressional hearings where Smith defended his Trump investigations, and a March 13 watchdog bar complaint—focus on professional scrutiny rather than criminal prosecution. With the deadline days away and no credible escalation signals from DOJ or Attorney General Pam Bondi, markets anticipate resolution to "No" absent late-breaking legal action.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.9% for Jack Smith facing charges by March 31, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, grand jury activity, or official announcements targeting the former special counsel over a year into the Trump administration. Earlier probes announced in August 2025 by US officials have yielded no public progress, while recent developments—including a February 2026 federal judge's permanent block on releasing Smith's classified documents report, January congressional hearings where Smith defended his Trump investigations, and a March 13 watchdog bar complaint—focus on professional scrutiny rather than criminal prosecution. With the deadline days away and no credible escalation signals from DOJ or Attorney General Pam Bondi, markets anticipate resolution to "No" absent late-breaking legal action.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.9% for Jack Smith facing charges by March 31, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, grand jury activity, or official announcements targeting the former special counsel over a year into the Trump administration. Earlier probes announced in August 2025 by US officials have yielded no public progress, while recent developments—including a February 2026 federal judge's permanent block on releasing Smith's classified documents report, January congressional hearings where Smith defended his Trump investigations, and a March 13 watchdog bar complaint—focus on professional scrutiny rather than criminal prosecution. With the deadline days away and no credible escalation signals from DOJ or Attorney General Pam Bondi, markets anticipate resolution to "No" absent late-breaking legal action.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.9% for Jack Smith facing charges by March 31, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, grand jury activity, or official announcements targeting the former special counsel over a year into the Trump administration. Earlier probes announced in August 2025 by US officials have yielded no public progress, while recent developments—including a February 2026 federal judge's permanent block on releasing Smith's classified documents report, January congressional hearings where Smith defended his Trump investigations, and a March 13 watchdog bar complaint—focus on professional scrutiny rather than criminal prosecution. With the deadline days away and no credible escalation signals from DOJ or Attorney General Pam Bondi, markets anticipate resolution to "No" absent late-breaking legal action.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されました」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されるか？」で7%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、7¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に7%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されました」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Jan 22, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されました」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されました」の現在のリーダーは「ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されるか？」でわずか7%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ジャック・スミスは3月31日までに起訴されました」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。