Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming sentiment at 93% implied probability for "No," driven by Luigi Mangione's ongoing federal detention without bail since his December 2024 arrest for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent developments, including a judge's dismissal of federal murder and weapons charges in January 2026—removing the death penalty but leaving life-eligible stalking counts—and his lawyers' March 18 request to delay the federal trial from September 2026 to January 2027 amid a June state murder trial, underscore prolonged custody. Foiled jailbreak attempts by supporters highlight his high-security status. Realistic challenges include a surprise bail grant or case dismissal at the April 1 hearing, though historical patterns in capital cases make release before year-end improbable amid viral anti-corporate fandom.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming sentiment at 93% implied probability for "No," driven by Luigi Mangione's ongoing federal detention without bail since his December 2024 arrest for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent developments, including a judge's dismissal of federal murder and weapons charges in January 2026—removing the death penalty but leaving life-eligible stalking counts—and his lawyers' March 18 request to delay the federal trial from September 2026 to January 2027 amid a June state murder trial, underscore prolonged custody. Foiled jailbreak attempts by supporters highlight his high-security status. Realistic challenges include a surprise bail grant or case dismissal at the April 1 hearing, though historical patterns in capital cases make release before year-end improbable amid viral anti-corporate fandom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming sentiment at 93% implied probability for "No," driven by Luigi Mangione's ongoing federal detention without bail since his December 2024 arrest for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent developments, including a judge's dismissal of federal murder and weapons charges in January 2026—removing the death penalty but leaving life-eligible stalking counts—and his lawyers' March 18 request to delay the federal trial from September 2026 to January 2027 amid a June state murder trial, underscore prolonged custody. Foiled jailbreak attempts by supporters highlight his high-security status. Realistic challenges include a surprise bail grant or case dismissal at the April 1 hearing, though historical patterns in capital cases make release before year-end improbable amid viral anti-corporate fandom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming sentiment at 93% implied probability for "No," driven by Luigi Mangione's ongoing federal detention without bail since his December 2024 arrest for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent developments, including a judge's dismissal of federal murder and weapons charges in January 2026—removing the death penalty but leaving life-eligible stalking counts—and his lawyers' March 18 request to delay the federal trial from September 2026 to January 2027 amid a June state murder trial, underscore prolonged custody. Foiled jailbreak attempts by supporters highlight his high-security status. Realistic challenges include a surprise bail grant or case dismissal at the April 1 hearing, though historical patterns in capital cases make release before year-end improbable amid viral anti-corporate fandom.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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