Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55.5% for Yes, driven primarily by recent disclosure on April 3 that Justice Samuel Alito, now 76, was briefly hospitalized on March 20 for dehydration after falling ill at a Federalist Society event in Philadelphia; he received fluids, was cleared by his physician, and resumed oral arguments the following week. This health incident has amplified longstanding speculation around Alito's 20-year tenure milestone and his upcoming book release in October, potentially signaling retirement timing before the Court's summer term end. With Republicans controlling the White House and Senate ahead of November midterms, traders see a narrow window for swift confirmation of a successor, echoing historical patterns where justices step down strategically amid favorable political conditions. No announcements have occurred, but uncertainty persists given justices' ages—Alito 76, Thomas 77—and the inherent unpredictability of health events.