Amid escalating tensions in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian forces have conducted at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels by mid-March, striking three ships on March 11 alone and causing fires, sinkings, and a sharp decline in tanker traffic through the vital oil chokepoint. U.S. CENTCOM reports over 8,000 Iranian targets hit, including 130 naval vessels, while Israel eliminated IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, who enforced passage approvals. Houthi proxies threatened Red Sea attacks on March 26, risking dual disruptions. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, diplomatic talks, or further airstrikes amid ongoing naval threats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
12%
April 2
12%
April 3
14%
April 4
12%
April 5
14%
April 6
13%
April 7
15%
April 8
15%
April 9
15%
April 10
20%
$284 Vol.
April 1
$26 Vol.
12%
April 2
$28 Vol.
12%
April 3
$76 Vol.
14%
April 4
$11 Vol.
12%
April 5
$26 Vol.
14%
April 6
$80 Vol.
13%
April 7
$0 Vol.
15%
April 8
$0 Vol.
15%
April 9
$11 Vol.
15%
April 10
$26 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating tensions in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian forces have conducted at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels by mid-March, striking three ships on March 11 alone and causing fires, sinkings, and a sharp decline in tanker traffic through the vital oil chokepoint. U.S. CENTCOM reports over 8,000 Iranian targets hit, including 130 naval vessels, while Israel eliminated IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, who enforced passage approvals. Houthi proxies threatened Red Sea attacks on March 26, risking dual disruptions. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, diplomatic talks, or further airstrikes amid ongoing naval threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
音量
$284終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating tensions in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian forces have conducted at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels by mid-March, striking three ships on March 11 alone and causing fires, sinkings, and a sharp decline in tanker traffic through the vital oil chokepoint. U.S. CENTCOM reports over 8,000 Iranian targets hit, including 130 naval vessels, while Israel eliminated IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, who enforced passage approvals. Houthi proxies threatened Red Sea attacks on March 26, risking dual disruptions. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, diplomatic talks, or further airstrikes amid ongoing naval threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$284終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating tensions in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran starting February 28, Iranian forces have conducted at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels by mid-March, striking three ships on March 11 alone and causing fires, sinkings, and a sharp decline in tanker traffic through the vital oil chokepoint. U.S. CENTCOM reports over 8,000 Iranian targets hit, including 130 naval vessels, while Israel eliminated IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, who enforced passage approvals. Houthi proxies threatened Red Sea attacks on March 26, risking dual disruptions. Traders watch for de-escalation signals, diplomatic talks, or further airstrikes amid ongoing naval threats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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