Preliminary National Weather Service surveys have confirmed over 180 tornadoes across the US through March 2026, propelled by multiple outbreaks including 30+ from March 5–10 in the Plains and Midwest, 22 on March 12 in the Southeast, and 27 on March 15 spanning the Mississippi Valley—far exceeding the climatological March average of around 80 per NOAA Storm Prediction Center data. Favorable atmospheric conditions, such as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture clashing with potent mid-level jets, sustained supercell activity and tornadic thunderstorms. With only days left in the month and minimal additional reports expected, trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability for 150+ reflects strong evidence from damage assessments on the Enhanced Fujita scale. A realistic challenge would require widespread downgrading of preliminary reports to non-tornadic events, though historical confirmation rates (65%+ of reports) make this improbable ahead of NCEI's final tally.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日150以上 98.6%
130〜149 <1%
70～99 <1%
100～129 <1%
$124,449 Vol.
$124,449 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
70未満
<1%
70～99
<1%
100～129
<1%
130〜149
1%
150以上
99%
150以上 98.6%
130〜149 <1%
70～99 <1%
100～129 <1%
$124,449 Vol.
$124,449 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
70未満
$25,180 Vol.
<1%
70～99
$22,659 Vol.
<1%
100～129
$28,481 Vol.
<1%
130〜149
$0 Vol.
1%
150以上
$48,129 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary National Weather Service surveys have confirmed over 180 tornadoes across the US through March 2026, propelled by multiple outbreaks including 30+ from March 5–10 in the Plains and Midwest, 22 on March 12 in the Southeast, and 27 on March 15 spanning the Mississippi Valley—far exceeding the climatological March average of around 80 per NOAA Storm Prediction Center data. Favorable atmospheric conditions, such as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture clashing with potent mid-level jets, sustained supercell activity and tornadic thunderstorms. With only days left in the month and minimal additional reports expected, trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability for 150+ reflects strong evidence from damage assessments on the Enhanced Fujita scale. A realistic challenge would require widespread downgrading of preliminary reports to non-tornadic events, though historical confirmation rates (65%+ of reports) make this improbable ahead of NCEI's final tally.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
音量
$124,449終了日
Apr 10, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary National Weather Service surveys have confirmed over 180 tornadoes across the US through March 2026, propelled by multiple outbreaks including 30+ from March 5–10 in the Plains and Midwest, 22 on March 12 in the Southeast, and 27 on March 15 spanning the Mississippi Valley—far exceeding the climatological March average of around 80 per NOAA Storm Prediction Center data. Favorable atmospheric conditions, such as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture clashing with potent mid-level jets, sustained supercell activity and tornadic thunderstorms. With only days left in the month and minimal additional reports expected, trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability for 150+ reflects strong evidence from damage assessments on the Enhanced Fujita scale. A realistic challenge would require widespread downgrading of preliminary reports to non-tornadic events, though historical confirmation rates (65%+ of reports) make this improbable ahead of NCEI's final tally.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$124,449終了日
Apr 10, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary National Weather Service surveys have confirmed over 180 tornadoes across the US through March 2026, propelled by multiple outbreaks including 30+ from March 5–10 in the Plains and Midwest, 22 on March 12 in the Southeast, and 27 on March 15 spanning the Mississippi Valley—far exceeding the climatological March average of around 80 per NOAA Storm Prediction Center data. Favorable atmospheric conditions, such as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture clashing with potent mid-level jets, sustained supercell activity and tornadic thunderstorms. With only days left in the month and minimal additional reports expected, trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability for 150+ reflects strong evidence from damage assessments on the Enhanced Fujita scale. A realistic challenge would require widespread downgrading of preliminary reports to non-tornadic events, though historical confirmation rates (65%+ of reports) make this improbable ahead of NCEI's final tally.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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